Air Transport World Comments On

[WorldTraveler]

To say that the revenue environment has NOT permanently changed shows a complete lack of understanding of the nature of the industry. One look at a graph of the average fare component of airline revenue shows that changes in the industry in the industry have never been experienced before and have permanently and fundamentally changed the revenue picture. Average fares took at 20% plus drop around 2001 and the drop has continued ever since. Never before in the history of the industry has traffic recovered as it has since 9/11 without a corresponding increase in revenue. Simply put, the LCCs are now large enough that they control pricing for the entire industry. Carriers like UA and US are fully in the crosshairs of the LCCs who wish to erode legacy carrier revenue.

Carriers have cut costs in the past and managed to keep from completely alienating their employees; other carriers have done just the opposite. The carriers that survive will do so because their managements will succeed at cutting costs and keeping employees on their side.

 

[uafa21]

As for chaos being a violation of labor laws. BS. A violoation is when the judge decides the fate of the UAL employees.

I'm not saying I agree, but, all this it total BS. The wage cuts along with the pension cuts are not right. By the time all the airlines cut pensions the taxpayers will revolt and quess what? Congress will completly do away with pensions when companies have quit contributing. When responsible management contributes its one thing. When you have UAL management that has continually sat by and let the company lose money that's another. This comapny has lost billions in the last 4 years while management has not done that much to stop it. They react way too slow.

 

[North by Northwest]

"To say that the revenue environment has NOT permanently " When you WT along with Industry pundits, display the method by which you can now predict the future. Let us know. I then want to know when and how I will die. NOTHING is permanet in this world NOTHING, that includes the info on your graphs. You are the one with a complete MIS understanding of nature. This business has seen far bigger earth shattering events than what has come along over the last 4 years. Ever heard of DEREGULATION?

 

[JungleClone]

The fact remains that this particular law interpretation has never been put to the test. Many, including UA Senior Mgmt, feel that U.S. bankruptcy laws trump the Railway-Labor Act. Organized labor feels the opposite. But the reality is that it's never been tested. Yet. At some point, you have to figure, that test will come. Will it happen with United? Let's hope we don't have to find out. It would just present an ugly outcome for everyone.

 

[North by Northwest]

The desire to desolve the RRLA has been a cherished dream for Airline Mang. and Republicans in power for many many years. They now see an opportunity. If it comes down to a show down, it will get serious and it won't just involve U and Ual.There will be an industryl melt down., and it won't be pretty. It takes a while before Americans get revved up enough for a revolt. However, once they have...it will be a cultural knock out that will be written about for decades to come You are talking about the very exsistance of the middle class in this country. It goes far beyond the airline industry. The greed of Corporate America has reached a cresendo. The American people can nolonger sit on the sidelines hoping that it won't reach them....it has seeped into every profession of our economy. The desire for cheap and greed will eat this nation alive....from the inside out. We have become our own worst enemy. Brace for impact...

 

[WorldTraveler]

N by NW,
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that things are not going to return to the way they once were but there will always be people who will deny the truth despite it being in living color right in front of their face. It has now been 4 years since the industry started its downturn (it started in the winter of 2001 - not on 9/11). The fact that airline industry revenues as a percentage of GDP are at the lowest level they have ever been and are not going up but farther down and the fact that average fares dropped by over 20% in 2001 and have not improved are all the evidence any rational person - which obviously doesn't include you - needs to hear.

It doesn't really matter, though. You obviously are in no position to influence anything, thus your continued dribble that the world is still flat.

I don't espouse the way some airlines are slashing and destroying their employees but at the same time no rational person can deny the change that has hit the industry. Refusing to acknowledge reality only further diminishes your shattered credibility.

 

[aafsc]

The desire to desolve the RRLA has been a cherished dream for Airline Mang. and Republicans in power for many many years. They now see an opportunity. If it comes down to a show down, it will get serious and it won't just involve U and Ual.There will be an industryl melt down., and it won't be pretty. It takes a while before Americans get revved up enough for a revolt. However, once they have...it will be a cultural knock out that will be written about for decades to come You are talking about the very exsistance of the middle class in this country. It goes far beyond the airline industry. The greed of Corporate America has reached a cresendo. The American people can nolonger sit on the sidelines hoping that it won't reach them....it has seeped into every profession of our economy. The desire for cheap and greed will eat this nation alive....from the inside out. We have become our own worst enemy. Brace for impact...

[post="202500"][/post]​

Very good post N by NW. It does go beyond the airline industry. Unions are at an all time low. Membership is around 13% down from 35% years ago and it shows. Most people no longer have traditional style pensions and have no retiree health care. Also everything keeps going up while wages stagnate and fall. Meanwhile, medical cost continue skyward thus eating away at peoples' shrinking wages. The middle class is disappearing rapidly and soon there will be just the rich and poor. We will become a third world nation. And for all of you people who hate unions, you have to realize that even though you are non-union you make what you make because you ride the coat tails of the unions. My father was an EAL mechanic (IAM and went on strike), across the street was a Delta mechanic (Delta mechanics are non-union). Our Delta neighbor told my dad that he hoped EAL people would negotiate decent wages and benefits because Delta always matched them and paid 5 cents more per hour to keep the union out. N by NW is right, we have become our own worst enemy. Al Queda or Bin Laden won't bring this country down. This country is rotting from within due to excessive greed and mismangement. We have another 4 years of a president who sides against honest, hardworking people and thinks it is OK to lose everything you accrued throughout your career (pensions, retiree health care, etc.). And thats not enough, now he wants to take the last thing the working class has, Social Security, and gamble it away in the stock market.

 

[North by Northwest]

"It doesn't really matter, though. You obviously are in no position to influence anything, thus your continued dribble that the world is still flat.

I don't espouse the way some airlines are slashing and destroying their employees but at the same time no rational person can deny the change that has hit the industry. Refusing to acknowledge reality only further diminishes your shattered credibility. " Another example of WorldTravellers incessant babble when one disagrees with his little bubble. Only a know it all from out side the industry would assume that one can not see that there is a renvenue slump. Do a little homework before spaming. Ever heard of a great airline named Pan Am? During the early 70's with the introduction of the 747 and high oil prices, revenue fell ( cheap tickets) to it's lowest in decades. Those of us that have been in this business for decades have seen changes that have turned the industry up side down. Your claim that you can predict the revenue climate 5 to 10 years from now reeks of a level of ignorance that is laughable. Now if you would like for me to tell you in private exactly what you can do with "my dribble" I would be more than happy to. Chomp on that piece of "flat world" for a bit....
Now look into your crystal ball and tell us what else you can "predict" that is permanent.

 

[whlinder]

Passenger yield in real terms has decreased about every year since 1982, from over 8 cents then to slightly over 4 cents now.

Can average fares ever increase again? I think they can, between increased fuel prices forcing the carriers to pass that cost on the the customer and flat capacity growth. Flying around cheap fares at losses is not sustainable long-term.

 

[WorldTraveler]

The ATA's annual report is available at the following link.
http://www.airlines.org/econ/files/2004AnnualReport.pdf

Those who wish to argue about the nature of the industry would do well to familiarize themselves with the content.

Yes, it is an industry trade organization and will reflect the story they want to tell. But, Mr. N by NW, in the American free enterprise system, those running businesses are the ones that set the rules of how the business will be run. It the owners and managers of the business believe revenue has been permanently changed, it is their job to rework the business plan to ensure the survival of the company. Like it or not, the bankruptcy rules are designed to keep the business running. While there are some hard lessons to be learned, don't ever forget that the US has the largest economy in the world and is the largest aviation market in the world. The principles which govern American business and the airlines have worked far more than they have failed. And while I cannot predict what airfares will be in 5 years (and never said I could), I do know there will be more people flying and there will still be plenty of people working for airlines. Many of the current employees of the legacy airlines may not be on the payroll but plenty of other people will be. That's life and the principles don't apply just to airlines. Get used to it.

 

[goingboeing]

Today Air Transport World wrote, earlier this week, the AFA board of directors (including US Airways representatives) approved a resolution calling for a nationwide CHAOS strike at all airlines with AFA representation "in the event that any one of the union's contracted airlines abrogates its existing collective bargaining agreement with AFA" (ATWOnline, Nov. 17). Such a strike would violate a number of US labor laws.

Regards,

USA320Pilot

[post="202212"][/post]​

The Railway Labor Act may not be applied here because the Chapter 11 Code will have superceded it when it abragates the labor contracts with the Unions.This is the opinion of some lawers involved with labor issues.
You employer cannot hold a gun to your head and make you come to work.They might attempt to terminate you but the employer or President Bush cannot make you come to work.
I would not count on the unions or its members to obey any orders by a judge or an Executive Order from G.W.
A dog can only take being kicked so many times and then it bites the hell out of you!

 

[air chief]

A dog can only take being kicked so many times and then it bites the hell out of you!


THEN..ITS TAKEN TO THE POUND AND GIVEN THE "BIG SNIFF"..GONE TO DOGGIE HEAVEN!!!!!