do the above numbers, include, are a part of, have nothing to do with the 68 (or so) b737s that were rejected (leases) which dropped the fleet count to a number lower than what you have above. in other words are these the "specifics" of previously announced plans or something beyond what was approved by the judge in bk?
Sorry for the delay, javaboy - been out flying....
Unless something has changed in the last 4 days, those numbers are accurate for the combined fleet, not just East, as of the date the company put them out. Presumably, they include all the known aircraft returns for the remainder of this year as well as any aircraft coming this year.
Other than approving the GE deal, which included the possibility of taking back the 11 737's starting in the summer of 2007, I think the judge is about out of the picture. Future returns are the result of lease expirations or leasors having the right to take back planes early.
From the outside, there's no way that I can tell what the fleet will look like next year - leases can be extended in negotiations, "new" planes can arrive (like the 3 757's), etc. The annual report contains a table showing deliveries/returns out several years, but I presume it is also only a plan and not cast in stone.
Here's the stats from the annual report:
As of 12/31/05, East had 232 and West 141 mainline aircraft. So 373 airplanes is the starting point for deliveries/returns.
In 2006, East has 11 leases expiring and leasors have 18 "call options" (can take planes back early) while West has 2 deliveries, 2 leasor "put options" (can extend lease), 12 lease expirations, and 6 leasor "call options". That's a net loss of possibly 43 airplanes this year, less the 3 757's acquired, which would result in the end of year fleet count being 333 planes. Since the guidance given on 5/9/06 anticipates 357 aircraft at year end, I presume that this later figure is more accurate.
In 2007, East has 22 leases expiring and 18 leasor call options while West has 17 leases expiring and 6 leasor call options.
In 2008, East has 42 leases expiring and 18 leasor call options while West has 19 leases expiring.
In 2009, the deferred Airbus deliveries start.
So in a worst case where the leasors took back all the planes they contractually could and no replacements were found, there would be major shrinkage of mainline. In a best case, all these leases would be renegotiated (or those planes replaced by others) and no shrinkage would take place - there could even be growth if more new leases were signed than expire. But at this point any conjecture about what the fleet will look like in the next few years is pure guesswork.
Jim
h34r:
