Because they have to pay those people they want to furlough for an additional 60 days. Also, if they have an overage of 400-500 f/as effective January 1, they do not want to announce it before Christmas because those ungrateful f/as (like me) might quit now (or start burning sick leave since we don't get paid for accrued sick leave when we quit, die, retire, or get furloughed) and leave them short-handed for the Christmas season.
So, if they know they have an overage in the first quarter, 2010, they do not want to announce it until after Christmas. If they only have to give the contractual notice of 30 days, they can furlough the overage effective 31JAN10. If they have to give 90 days notice, they can not furlough the overage until 31MAR10. You do know that I am guaranteed 70 hours of flight pay a month (75 hours on reserve months) whether the company needs me to fly or not don't you? So, that is 2 additional months they have to pay me if they have to give 90 days notice.
And, the most important reason of all. They have not announced an overage of f/as. They have announced that leaves of absence are available for 01JAN10-31MAR10. (That's a roundabout way of saying that the overage will only exist for the first quarter.) They want these people (like me) off the payroll as soon after 01JAN as possible because they intend to recall them for some time in the 2nd quarter, 2010 prior to the summer travel season. Just like we have 270 (I think) f/as who were furloughed 30SEP for two months who are to return to work, 01DEC. Thanks to the canny bargaining of the APFA during the 2003 concessions, we now have seasonal furloughs.
It's like the migrant workers in agriculture. You only need those large numbers of employees during the planting and harvesting seasons. You do not want to pay those people year-round.
This is going to start shredding the bottom of the seniority list because a number of f/as at the bottom (like me) have no intention of putting up with (or are able to afford) working only 4-6 months per year. So, those more senior f/as who think of us as only a resource for keeping them off reserve (and furlough fodder) will find themselves back on reserve, and then they will find themselves subject to seasonal furloughs because there will be no one below them on the seniority list.
And, don't think it won't happen. Back in 2003 when the APFA gave up furlough pay (and I don't CARE who actually did it. The BOD, and the members who bothered to vote, approved it), I said that this opened the door for seasonal furloughs. All the senior f/as on this board derided me because I didn't know what I was talking about. "The company would NEVER do that. It's too much trouble. Besides, the APFA would never allow it. " (As if they had any power to stop it. There are holes in our contract you could drive a truck through.) Well, 30SEP09, we got our first seasonal furlough. 31JAN10 (probably) will be our second.
When I was recalled from furlough in November, 2004 and assigned to St. Louis, reserve at St. Louis only went to about 6 years--maybe as high as 8 years some months. (There are a number of currently unhappy f/as at SLT who transferred to SLT from DFW/ORD/LAX to get off reserve. They are back on reserve and having to commute. Not happy.) Well, for the month of November, 2009, reserve at St. Louis went to 18+ years. Reserve backup went to almost 20 years. Now, granted this is due in part to the fact that AA has not hired new f/as during that time, but it is also due to the fact that AA is losing the bottom of the seniority list. In November, 2004, I was approx. 250 from the bottom of the active seniority list. Today, I'm about 115.
SLT (the proper designation for the crew base) is a small base (approx. 350 f/as). If the bottom 20-25 SLT f/as are furloughed (and especially if we don't come back like good little sheep for summer travel season), reserve will start pushing 25 years. Lord only knows what it will be in the more senior bases like LAX and DFW.
Now, there are a number of senior f/as on this board who will take comfort in the fact that the preceding paragraph does not apply to them because they are not based in SLT. "Besides, everybody knows that SLT is closing in 2010." But, that's only because most of them don't bother to think beyond "well, I'm not based there; so, it won't happen to me." Ask some of the DFW f/as where reserve is now most months at DFW domestic. Shredding the bottom of the seniority list will affect ALL bases at some point.
As the Bible says, "Sow the wind. Reap the whirlwind."