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Oil Discussion/Speculation

Why would an environmentalist be "for" a carbon credit market to "get rich" when there are a multitude of much more lucrative credit markets already in place? You are presuming "environmentalists" would only "get rich" in one credit market and not another? Are you thinking?

Better arguments, please.

My point is that some environmentalist, ie AL Gore can have other motives. I am sure he is well invested in other futures, as was Hillary. I am only pointing this out to people who do not understand how markets work and that carbon credits will be traded in the futures market, as is oil. Like I said, if you want to know someone's (especially a politician) motives, follow the money honey.
 
Sell their soul once more?
Dwindling list of assets......
Losing proposition......
Career change is in order....

Speaking of a career change; a great living will be made trading in the "Cap and Trade" (Carbon Credit) markets. The carbon credit market will make the oil market look like "chump change"(This is the reason many "environmentalist" are for it, they will get rich. "Follow the money honey."). Every business will need them, and when their allotment runs out, they will have to pay for them to continue operating. It kind of reminds me of Tony Saprono and his protection money. The speculators have already raised the "future" price of a government mandated "carbon credit" from $2.50 to over $7.00 per unit. All speculators do is predict the price of a comodity into the future. They now believe "Caps and Trade" will happen, thus the price is skyrocketing. Speculators believe that Congress (as usual) will do nothing about our oil situation, thus the future price of oil skyrocketed. Since we, as a nation, are determined to screw up our good thing here in the good 'ole USA, us airline people may as well be the ones to profit from it. Prepare to trade in carbon credits. Start your due dilagence now.

Funny you mention carbon credits.....good ol' Al Gore is right in the middle of all the money for this scheme.....
 
I am only pointing this out to people who do not understand how markets work and that carbon credits will be traded in the futures market, as is oil. Like I said, if you want to know someone's (especially a politician) motives, follow the money honey.
In the process, you are demonstrating your abysmal knowledge of credit markets and what they are about, besides declaring your obvious bias'.

I am not certain what your comments have to do with bankruptcy.
 
Oil company execs said at a hearing in DCA that oil should be trading in the $35-$65 range. The Saudis think oil should be in roughly the same range.


Could it be that oil refiners (that is what most US oil companies really do) make the most money on their refining crack spread at $70 per barrel? The Saudis are afraid of demand destruction and the fact that the US will find alternatives to oil, ie. natural gas. It is not speculators or oil companies or the man behind the curtain driving up oil costs, it is supply and its artificial constraints imposed by the US Congress. I have posted the numbers on this thread today, there is a 2,000,000 barrel per day shortfall in World oil supply. We have at least that much oil available in ANWAR and off the coasts, but we can't touch it do to government saying it is verboten to access our resources. Access our oil whilst we look for alternatives and the price will plument. Continue on our current path and we will see never ending oil price increases. That is what the traders see and they are betting their hard earned money that the do nothing Congress will continue to restrain the means of production (as proposed by Karl Marx) and as such, oil will be $130-150 per barrel at delivery this fall.

I'm all in favor of oil drilling anywhere there is land or water. Sorry, seals and polar bears and urchins and other critters. We'll do our best, but at the end of the day, we have the thumbs.

If they find oil underneath my back porch, I'll gladly sleep with the hum of that well outside my bedroom window.

But finding a buttload of oil isn't necessarily going to solve the fuel cost crisis that's pushing airlines and everyone else over the edge. We don't have enough refinery capacity in America. A new one hasn't been built in eons. Something like the mid 1970s. And the ones we have are right next to each other in TX and LA waiting for the next hurricane. All of the NIMBYs and the tree huggers are in lockstep, Washington has its thumb in its collective butt, and everyone's hands are tied. Nobody has the stones to make a stand for fear of losing votes or money or being unpopular.

Let another Katrina come along, followed by what's-her-name (Rita?) that hit Texas shortly thereafter, coupled with the current gas/fuel hubbub, and we're in for some deep doo doo.

Conserve. Repeal. Explore. Drill. Refine. Innovate. In that order.
 
I'm all in favor of oil drilling anywhere there is land or water. Sorry, seals and polar bears and urchins and other critters. We'll do our best, but at the end of the day, we have the thumbs.

If they find oil underneath my back porch, I'll gladly sleep with the hum of that well outside my bedroom window.

But finding a buttload of oil isn't necessarily going to solve the fuel cost crisis that's pushing airlines and everyone else over the edge. We don't have enough refinery capacity in America. A new one hasn't been built in eons. Something like the mid 1970s. And the ones we have are right next to each other in TX and LA waiting for the next hurricane. All of the NIMBYs and the tree huggers are in lockstep, Washington has its thumb in its collective butt, and everyone's hands are tied. Nobody has the stones to make a stand for fear of losing votes or money or being unpopular.

Let another Katrina come along, followed by what's-her-name (Rita?) that hit Texas shortly thereafter, coupled with the current gas/fuel hubbub, and we're in for some deep doo doo.

Conserve. Repeal. Explore. Drill. Refine. Innovate. In that order.

Actually, we have plenty of spare refining capacity in the U.S. right now. Up until the last few years, it was the norm for U.S. refineries to operate very near or at 100% capacity. That number has dropped to the mid-high 80 percentile range of late.

"Exceptionally weak gasoline demand has depressed refiner operating margins and discouraged them from operating at historical levels," said Chris Lafakis, an associate economist at Moody's. "Refinery utilization should be well over 90% at this time of year."

In fact, gasoline inventories are actually in the upper-half of their 5-year average. U.S. summer gasoline demand will shrink for the first time since 1991 this year as skyrocketing pump prices and the wider economic malaise hit holiday plans, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

While there have been many reasons given for the high cost of gasoline, U.S. refinery capacity simply isn't one of them.
 
Actually, we have plenty of spare refining capacity in the U.S. right now. Up until the last few years, it was the norm for U.S. refineries to operate very near or at 100% capacity. That number has dropped to the mid-high 80 percentile range of late.

"Exceptionally weak gasoline demand has depressed refiner operating margins and discouraged them from operating at historical levels," said Chris Lafakis, an associate economist at Moody's. "Refinery utilization should be well over 90% at this time of year."

In fact, gasoline inventories are actually in the upper-half of their 5-year average. U.S. summer gasoline demand will shrink for the first time since 1991 this year as skyrocketing pump prices and the wider economic malaise hit holiday plans, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

While there have been many reasons given for the high cost of gasoline, U.S. refinery capacity simply isn't one of them.


Big oil touts supply and demand regarding pricing....if what you imply is true and what they say too...then gasoline stocks should be high and price should be lower.....explain please....
 
Big oil touts supply and demand regarding pricing....if what you imply is true and what they say too...then gasoline stocks should be high and price should be lower.....explain please....

Nothing was implied. I simply showed, through facts, that the purported shortfall in refinery capacity, which is simply untrue, was not an issue in the steep run-up of gasoline. As i said earlier, gasoline stocks are in fact high, 8.5 percent higher in the first quarter this year than last year, (we were paying $3 a gallon this time last year)and are still in the upper-half of their 5 year average. Refineries historically should be running well north of 90% right now, and they've been fluctuating somewhere between 85-90% for months.

US first quarter fuel demand, as measured by deliveries of petroleum products, was 1.4 percent below year-ago levels, the third straight quarter of year-on-year declines in the world’s largest oil consuming nation. The first quarter’s decline comes on the heels of three years of flat to declining deliveries.

Why are we now paying over $4 for gas? I suppose the weak U.S. dollar has something to do with it, as well as India and China, but that still wouldn't explain the meteoric rise of crude oil. The market appears to have come de-coupled from the supply/demand aspect of it, and now relies on innuendo and hearsay instead.
 
I'm all in favor of oil drilling anywhere there is land or water. Sorry, seals and polar bears and urchins and other critters. We'll do our best, but at the end of the day, we have the thumbs.

If they find oil underneath my back porch, I'll gladly sleep with the hum of that well outside my bedroom window.

But finding a buttload of oil isn't necessarily going to solve the fuel cost crisis that's pushing airlines and everyone else over the edge. We don't have enough refinery capacity in America. A new one hasn't been built in eons. Something like the mid 1970s. And the ones we have are right next to each other in TX and LA waiting for the next hurricane. All of the NIMBYs and the tree huggers are in lockstep, Washington has its thumb in its collective butt, and everyone's hands are tied. Nobody has the stones to make a stand for fear of losing votes or money or being unpopular.

Let another Katrina come along, followed by what's-her-name (Rita?) that hit Texas shortly thereafter, coupled with the current gas/fuel hubbub, and we're in for some deep doo doo.

Conserve. Repeal. Explore. Drill. Refine. Innovate. In that order.

I'm with you on that.
 
They have not built a refinery in over 20 years, the oil companies manipulate the capacity, gas and oil products use is way up and yet capacity is down.

Just because the refineries are not operating at 100% doesnt mean there is enough capacity.

How is there enough if refineries havent been built in over 20 years?

Article

An unusually large number of U.S. refineries were offline this spring. That allowed refineries that were operating to charge more for their gasoline. It also led to allegations from some consumer advocates that refiners were deliberately withholding gas in order to drive up prices.
 
Actually there is about 900,000 gallons per day coming on line in Port Authur, TX in 2009 and this is additional capacity to an existing refinery.

Yes, for those of you hitting up your Google search to verify Bob's claim, this is absolutely correct and this is Motiva (Shell) building the new refinery. They've been extremely low key so as to not let anyone know there's any new refining activity about to commence. They wouldn't want any perceived increase in supply occurring. It's 100% true.

http://www.portarthurrefinery.com/

It's essentially a brand new refinery being built on the same site as a refinery that currently exists. They call it an "expansion" so that it doesn't appear as though they're building a new refinery, but actually are
 
Nothing was implied. I simply showed, through facts, that the purported shortfall in refinery capacity, which is simply untrue, was not an issue in the steep run-up of gasoline. As i said earlier, gasoline stocks are in fact high, 8.5 percent higher in the first quarter this year than last year, (we were paying $3 a gallon this time last year)and are still in the upper-half of their 5 year average. Refineries historically should be running well north of 90% right now, and they've been fluctuating somewhere between 85-90% for months.

US first quarter fuel demand, as measured by deliveries of petroleum products, was 1.4 percent below year-ago levels, the third straight quarter of year-on-year declines in the world’s largest oil consuming nation. The first quarter’s decline comes on the heels of three years of flat to declining deliveries.

Why are we now paying over $4 for gas? I suppose the weak U.S. dollar has something to do with it, as well as India and China, but that still wouldn't explain the meteoric rise of crude oil. The market appears to have come de-coupled from the supply/demand aspect of it, and now relies on innuendo and hearsay instead.

Every intelligent source out there, or at least the ones I choose to listen to, talks about reducing our dependence on foreign sources of oil and improving our self-sufficiency. They also talk about the need for more refinery capacity. Without trying to get mired in a political debate, it only seems that the Obamatrons want to hang onto the notion that we don't need to expand our exploration of oil sources to include Alaska, our offshore waters, and everywhere in between.

I heard that debate just yesterday on the boob tube.

I'm all for algae, biodiesel, hydrogen, bath water, grass clipppings, lemonade, coffee grounds, or whatever else they can come up with to replace oil, but that stuff needs, in my opinion, to be looked at concurrently with increasing access of existing technology (AKA gasoline) and a strong focus on conservation and improved efficiency.

If I'm going somewhere alone, I ride my bike. We're on the waiting list for a Smart Car.

If capacity isn't an issue, as you claim, certainly redundancy should be. If bin laden (he's not worthy of capitalization) and his goons decide to wipe out Baton Rouge and we lose a sizeable chunk of our ability to refine oil into a usable product, what then? If you're running at 90% capacity, what will the airlines do for fuel for their airplanes, provided any of them have managed somehow to escape foreclosure?

For that matter, what will the rest of us do? Gas for our cars? Heat for our houses? All of the things we buy that require fuel to ship them from China (won't buy it) to our local big box store (something else I refuse to patronize).

My standard of living no longer depends on the airline business. I don't miss that "when's the shoe going to drop" cloud over my head. I went through some very, very troubled financial times at USAir...times when we all thought our paychecks were going to bounce, rounds of layoffs, etc. Anyone remember that March when we almost went out of business because of the credit card processing snafu? It was in the last couple of years during BK1, I think. Banks were trying to cut off our ability to accept credit cards, or something like that, and it came right down to the wire, if I recall correctly.

This oil/fuel stuff is scary. I read yesterday that Hugo Chavez (speaking of kooks) is talking to Putin about getting nukes for Venezuela -- a huge producer of oil. Yet another notch in the instability bedpost.
 
Even if they remove the offshore ban it will take five to 10 years for that oil to hit the market, so it wont do anything to effect the current prices.
 
Even if they remove the offshore ban it will take five to 10 years for that oil to hit the market, so it wont do anything to effect the current prices.

That's the whole point. Washington needs to get moving. Do-nothing morons should have gotten moving on this years ago. Too busy trying to please all of their special interest groups and get themselves re-elected. Now we're sitting here with our pants around our knees, and it costs me $70 to fill up my Volvo. Hell, it costs $50 to fill up my wife's VW!

I can't imagine what it costs to fill up an A330, but I'd love to know.

I guess with that mentality, we'll wait until we're completely out of gas and then say "oh, it's time to do something about it." Hmm. What now? I'm sorry, but I don't think that's very forward-thinking.

Proper Prior Preparation Prevents Piss-Poor Performance, to quote my college marching band coach.

Hey, Tempe could take a lesson from the 7 Ps, huh?
 

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