While Obama is tied on a ballot test in a "generic Republican" matchup (44% Republican and 43% Obama) and holds a lead against Mitt Romney (43% Romney and 49% Obama),
in the place where it really matters, in those "toss up" electoral states and with those voters who are extremely likely to vote, any advantage he has all but disappears. With the toss up electoral states, Obama trails the generic Republican on the ballot by 46% to 39%, and against Romney, is tied at 46%. With the 72% of voters who say they are "extremely likely" to vote, Obama trails the Generic Republican by six-points and Mitt Romney by three points, not breaking 45% on either of the two ballot tests.
At this point in the election cycle, however, the ballot is the least important of the measurements in looking at Obama's reelection chances. Along with the President's overall job approval, we tested how voters perceived how the President was doing in five areas: the economy, foreign policy, dealing with congress, the federal budget and spending, and jobs.
Of the five, the President only receives positive marks on one - Foreign Affairs - at fifty-five percent approve and 39% disapprove (showing in fact the voters are willing to give credit where credit is due). The other four all received net negative reviews of the voters with the ratio of strongly disapprove over strongly approve running extremely high. With the economy, voters disapprove of Obama handling the issue by 62% to 36% (3.1 to 1 strongly disapprove), on his handling of the federal deficit 64% disapprove and 33% approve (3 to 1 strongly disapprove), on his signature issue of jobs, voters disapprove by a 58% to 40% margin (2.4 to 1 strongly disapprove), and on dealing with congress 58% disapprove and 38% approve (2.3 to 1 Strongly disapprove). As importantly, to the long-range prospects of re-election, Obama's disapproval in the "toss up" electoral states is two-to-one on every one of the specific job approval measurements except jobs (which is still upside down by 62% disapprove - 36% approve).
