US pilot labor thread 6/14-6/20

[767jetz]

Your numbers are WAAAY overly optimistic. There may not be an initial furlough of the amount I indicated, but once all the retraining and downsizing is over, My number will be closer.

I'll wait and see. Plus, ALPA will give up MORE of your wages and working conditions in a useless attempt to prevent some of the bloodshed, count on that.

Actually, my numbers are probably a little low. UAL has 8000 pilots, and 460 aircraft presently. They are parking 100, which is 22 percent of their aircraft. 22 percent of 8000 pilots is 1760 pilots. That's about 17.5 pilots per airplane! You guys are short staffed? BS! Also, That stuff about higher utilization of the heavies is hogwash. Our heavies are in the air something like 20 out of every 24 hours. I doubt that UAL's utilization is a whole lot less. Pretty hard to increase that, especially as the planes get older.

If you think you are safe and have any sort of "career expectations", you're dreaming. I mean that industry wide, not just at UAL.

Your post oozes with bitterness. Can't help you there. I guess my last post went in one ear and out the other. I just received an ALPA message that negotiations continue and furlough mitigation is a top priority. But you won't believe that either I'm sure.

Whatever. But when the numbers come out, will you admit you were wrong or will you have some excuse why you are still right? I'll be the first to admit my estimate was off if I'm wrong.

Just to show how your thinking is off, try thinking INTERNATIONALLY... as in long haul augmented crews. Most 747's and 777's go out with 4 pilots. Many 767's go out with 3. So simply dividing fleet by head count is sorely lacking in accuracy. But don't let facts stand in your way. Speculate on about UA's doom.

Once again, aren't you one of the ones who wonders why UA pilots come to discuss topics on "your" forum? Still wonder why? I rest my case.

 

[oldiebutgoody]

Why would I be bitter? I have no "dog in that fight", except for some friends that will be fine in either event.

Sure I'll admit it IF it happens. Remember, I said that my numbers are for parking of 100 aircraft, not the initial number, whatever that will be. When we get your fleet size down to 360, we'll look at the numbers again. Then YOU can admit that YOU are wrong.

Just for your info, I know that the fleets don't match, and that accounts for some of UAL's inefficiency, but SWA has 10.5 pilots/aircraft. UAL has 17.5. AMR has just over 13 pilots/airplane. You wanna bet that that number is not being looked at CLOSELY by the "number crunchers" at UAL? A lot of PAIN is coming to UAL.

I feel sorry for everyone in this screwed up industry. It's gonna be really painful for EVERYONE with very few exceptions.

Sucks that I have to post on the US Airways Forum to bait UAL guys, but that's how Richard wants it.

 

[oldiebutgoody]

Once again, aren't you one of the ones who wonders why UA pilots come to discuss topics on "your" forum? Still wonder why? I rest my case.

I guess you mean that it's because we have more stimulating discussions here than over on "your" forum. We know BS when we see it!

Oh, and by the way, NWA has 12.7 pilots/airplane. LCC has 13.5 pilots/airplane. Just thought you'd want to know....

Sure, I'll gladly admit i'm wrong, when(IF) it happens. Bet I'm wrong on the LOW side.

I really do hope I'm wrong, I just doubt that I will be.

 

[ua767fo]

If you work for United and you think you are safe then you are truly out to lunch.

The one thing that I learned being furloughed from AAA is that the first out the door gets the next job first, is senior at the next operation to the one who held on longest.

The question is will I be furloughed before some major goes down the tube so I wont be out of luck?

Been there, done that
DENVER, CO

 

[767jetz]

I guess you mean that it's because we have more stimulating discussions here than over on "your" forum. We know BS when we see it!

Oh, and by the way, NWA has 12.7 pilots/airplane. LCC has 13.5 pilots/airplane. Just thought you'd want to know....

Sure, I'll admit i'm wrong, when(IF) it happens. Bet I'm wrong on the LOW side.

Boy, there really is no way of talking to you. Selective reading perhaps? Did you completely miss the part where I told you that our international operation requires a much different staffing model than domestic? Just look at your own numbers for cryin' out loud.

NWA has 12.7 pilots per airplane. AA 13 per airplane. Where do most of those airplanes fly? Internationally they fly to Europe or South America. Most of AA's need single augmentation, if that. How many hours do you think it takes to fly from MIA to Peru? NWA's Pacific operation is significantly smaller than UA's, so even though they have long haul flights that require double augmentation, their average is not affected to the degree UA's is. News flash... DTW to Tokyo (where almost all NW flights stop) going north over the pole is a pretty short hop on a 747. Not even sure if they need double augmentation for that. Do you even realize that any flight over 8 hours requires 3 pilots and over 12 hours requires 4 pilots???

In fact, with LCC's mostly domestic structure and tiny international operation with single augmentation on only a small number of flights, it looks like your 13.5 pilots per airplane is a bit fat on the manpower.

What part of this math are you not grasping? Long flights require more pilots, which brings the average way up. No wonder SW has only 10.5 pilots per airplane. I would think that someone with your "vast airline experience" would understand this.

Did you also miss the part I said about UA having exactly 969 737 pilots system wide? How on Earth do you go from 969 to 1750?????? UA's 10.3 pilot per airplane ratio on the 737 is even less than SWA. Which also goes to prove my point about UA's manpower shortage. Are you claiming that the 6 747's will account for the other 781+ pilots you are predicting will be furloughed? That would be 131.8 pilots per airplane! YGTBSM Sorry, but try as you will, you can not change the basic math here. It's not that difficult.

Furthermore, if utilization of UA's airplanes is so tight, where are they getting the metal to fly the 10 additional flights to Hawaii that were announced? Hint... It's obviously not from shiny new airplanes. Hogwash? You are grasping at straws trying to justify a ridiculous claim.

There will be well under 1000 furloughs after all the planes are parked, and after ALPA and UA agree to the furlough mitigation. And it will come without significant concession. ALPA is not in a giving mood. You will see voluntary leaves, better manpower levels on other fleets, increased utilization of the other fleets, and reduced line values (from low 90's to low 80's probably), that will lower the need for involuntary furloughs to about 500-700.

It's a shame that anyone needs to be furloughed from any airline. Oil Speculators should taken out back and... well, you know. Lucky for you the East has a minimum hull count. So for now the blood letting is minimized. But if oil remains at these levels, and LCC's stock remains below $3.00, it wouldn't be surprising to to see another bankruptcy at LCC to get out of that obligation and reject more leases. So hold on for the ride.

 

[EastUS]

I just received an ALPA message that negotiations continue and furlough mitigation is a top priority.

Whew!...That's a huge relief!. Alpa's already on it!!/The Great and Powerfull Oz has the situation well in hand then.....and to think that I was needlessly concerned for the UAL folks.

"And it will come without significant concession. ALPA is not in a giving mood." Well then...All's clearly well....sure thing. It is refreshing to hear that the "giving mood" has passed...finally...after all these years 😉

imho: 500-700 total furloughs for a reduction of 100 aircraft's childish dreaming. Actually assuming that Alpa will effectively "mitigate" anything is pure insanity.
I hope I'm completely wrong on the first, and will be utterly astonished at Alpa's "success" on the second, for the sake of the folks at UAL.

Good luck...seriously. Any/All employee groups, industry wide, will need some in the times to come.

 

[Phoenix]

I just received an ALPA message that negotiations continue and furlough mitigation is a top priority. But you won't believe that either I'm sure.

Yeah.. but they didn't tell you that "furlough mitigation" has to do with mitigating the impact on J.P.'s salary as a result of less dues due to furlough. That's why "furlough mitigation" is a "top" priority. Get it yet? "Top" priority.

ALPA tells the truth plainly and people are still in disbelief, wanting to believe it means something other than what they said.

 

[pilot]

The one thing that I learned being furloughed from AAA is that the first out the door gets the next job first, is senior at the next operation to the one who held on longest.

The question is will I be furloughed before some major goes down the tube so I wont be out of luck?

Been there, done that
DENVER, CO

Pal, jumping around within the industry and trying to hang on as "majors" go down the tube is being out of luck. Unless you are extremely senior in this business and with an airline that knows what they are doing (AMR, LUV, or CAL) you need to think outside the box. And that include rethinking flying airplanes for a living.

"I'm young and I have time to get to that heavy seat as the industry recovers". In the meantime one makes crap wages, misses kids grow up, stuck in Peoria over Christmas and has vacation in February after sitting on reserve the rest of the year. But in 20 or so years by God I'll be a widebody reserve commuting to Chicago and then I can spend Christmas in Bejing.

Folks, this profession was a truly good one 20 or 30 years ago. I know, I was there. Now it is just a job. You want to fly airplanes? Nothing wrong with that, but it ain't going to be what it used to be. And unless you work for those 3 companies above the likelihood of your career being stable is as likely as the East accepting Nic or the West embracing DOH.

 

[awausairtech]

Has the new union ( USAPA) changed changed the NIC Award?

 

[awausairtech]

The reason i ask is will this change the layoff position of the 200 due to be cut?

 

[767jetz]

I agree with that entire post except for the part about AMR. They don't belong on the short list of places to work. LUV and CAL are the only ones who seem to have good management. AMR is not in a good financial position right now. Too many debt obligations and a higher fuel bill than even United.

 

[oldiebutgoody]

Boy, there really is no way of talking to you. Selective reading perhaps? Did you completely miss the part where I told you that our international operation requires a much different staffing model than domestic? Just look at your own numbers for cryin' out loud.

NWA has 12.7 pilots per airplane. AA 13 per airplane. Where do most of those airplanes fly? Internationally they fly to Europe or South America. Most of AA's need single augmentation, if that. How many hours do you think it takes to fly from MIA to Peru? NWA's Pacific operation is significantly smaller than UA's, so even though they have long haul flights that require double augmentation, their average is not affected to the degree UA's is. News flash... DTW to Tokyo (where almost all NW flights stop) going north over the pole is a pretty short hop on a 747. Not even sure if they need double augmentation for that. Do you even realize that any flight over 8 hours requires 3 pilots and over 12 hours requires 4 pilots???

In fact, with LCC's mostly domestic structure and tiny international operation with single augmentation on only a small number of flights, it looks like your 13.5 pilots per airplane is a bit fat on the manpower.

What part of this math are you not grasping? Long flights require more pilots, which brings the average way up. No wonder SW has only 10.5 pilots per airplane. I would think that someone with your "vast airline experience" would understand this.

Did you also miss the part I said about UA having exactly 969 737 pilots system wide? How on Earth do you go from 969 to 1750?????? UA's 10.3 pilot per airplane ratio on the 737 is even less than SWA. Which also goes to prove my point about UA's manpower shortage. Are you claiming that the 6 747's will account for the other 781+ pilots you are predicting will be furloughed? That would be 131.8 pilots per airplane! YGTBSM Sorry, but try as you will, you can not change the basic math here. It's not that difficult.

Furthermore, if utilization of UA's airplanes is so tight, where are they getting the metal to fly the 10 additional flights to Hawaii that were announced? Hint... It's obviously not from shiny new airplanes. Hogwash? You are grasping at straws trying to justify a ridiculous claim.

There will be well under 1000 furloughs after all the planes are parked, and after ALPA and UA agree to the furlough mitigation. And it will come without significant concession. ALPA is not in a giving mood. You will see voluntary leaves, better manpower levels on other fleets, increased utilization of the other fleets, and reduced line values (from low 90's to low 80's probably), that will lower the need for involuntary furloughs to about 500-700.

It's a shame that anyone needs to be furloughed from any airline. Oil Speculators should taken out back and... well, you know. Lucky for you the East has a minimum hull count. So for now the blood letting is minimized. But if oil remains at these levels, and LCC's stock remains below $3.00, it wouldn't be surprising to to see another bankruptcy at LCC to get out of that obligation and reject more leases. So hold on for the ride.

All your numbers just prove how SERIOUSLY MISMANAGED UAL is right now.

10 MORE flights to Hawaii? That just means they have planes sitting around, and would rather LOSE A LITTLE LESS MONEY than lose a lot by having them sit! The leasure travel market is DRYING UP!

By the way, CO has 13.6 pilots/airplane, WITH a large Pacific operation. Also, NWA has almost no Atlantic stuff, so, if what you are saying made ANY sense, they would have MORE, not less, pilots/aircraft than UAL.

Maybe your 737 operation is staffed properly, but it looks like the rest of your fleet types are WAY OUT OF WHACK!

You've suffered some really bad news. You're in the DENIAL phase. Don't worry, it'll be over soon. In the article it said they would have some numbers within a month.

LCC made a profit last year. United? Not so much!

 

[PA18]

"And it will come without significant concession. ALPA is not in a giving mood." Well then...All's clearly well....sure thing. It is refreshing to hear that the "giving mood" has passed...finally...after all these years 😉

"Not One Nickel. Not One Job."

 

[oldiebutgoody]

"Not One Nickel. Not One Job."

I almost spit out my coffee! That's a hoot!

 

[767jetz]

You've suffered some really bad news. You're in the DENIAL phase. Don't worry, it'll be over soon. In the article it said they would have some numbers within a month.

Yawn... You are starting to bore me.

Yes, yes... you've nailed it on the head. Must be denial. 969 pilots flying the 737 at UA, but some how they will need to get rid of almost double that number when those planes are parked. I see it clearly now. You must be right. 🙄

It is no wonder to me why you guys are stuck where you are. Denial? Talk about the pot calling the kettle black.

FYI, this news is not so devastating for me personally as I am easily safe from any furlough, and would even consider a voluntary leave since my wife's career is far better than this airline career anyway. She does much better than you or I ever will. So your "bad news" and "denial" theory is full of holes.

Carry on with your misinformed speculation on the fate of UA's 737 fleet, if it makes you feel better. Just remember this conversation when you are proven wrong once again. Oh, enjoy your civil war and LOA 93 while you're at it, and good luck with BK 3.

Over and out.