USAirways to Take Over DL South America Routes!

[WorldTraveler]

I would like to see US serve Asia. With DL tail numbers and repainted planes.

Now we know you are just desperate and full of venom. DL doesn't have enough airplanes to do much in Asia with its own aircraft. How is US supposed to be able to develop an Asian route system from smaller hubs than DL has and with a handful of 777s.

Face it - UA is on the fast track back to C11; you should be channelling your venom toward UA management to turn your own sinking ship around than wishing ill on a company that is making UA look like the failing amateur that it is.

 

[Fly]

Why do you think that WT? Looks to me that United has the second highest stock price of the legacies right now. Not to mention an incredible route structure. (ok, I mentioned it....the absolute BEST route structure...bar NONE)

Must be sad to be so obsessed with our sweet, little ole airline when you don't work for either DL or UAL. You're a customer, maybe you should go over to the Flyertalk board where like minded customers complain about boarding first and if the f/a's forgot to act excited enough when they boarded.

 

[WorldTraveler]

UA has the fastest SHRINKING stock value in the industry.

You can't stand have someone debating you that actually knows something about the industry

 

[DLFlyer31]

Face it - UA is on the fast track back to C11; you should be channelling your venom toward UA management to turn your own sinking ship around than wishing ill on a company that is making UA look like the failing amateur that it is.

How is UA on a fast track to CH11, when they are posting profits?

UA's margins may not be as great, but there's a reason for that. DL/NW are enjoying better than average margins, largely because they are shrinking. It's not hard to ratchet up your margins when you slash domestic capacity by 20%. However, that's only a temporary solution. In the long term, you have to grow and that growth will bring margins back down in line...which is why the two network legacies that grew the most (UA/CO) had the lowest margins.

 

[WorldTraveler]

UA shrank its network in bankruptcy more than what DL has done so far and yet DL has reported better margins. Perhaps DL has put its capacity where it can make more money. And it doesn't hurt that DL has regained its position as the network carrier cost leader.

DL has every intention of growing. I'm sure you've heard about the 757s from AA/TW and the 777LRs along with DL's review of 100 seat airplanes. DL knows full well that the network has to grow and that is why they are going to seek exit financing that will allow them to acquire aircraft. The LFCs have taught us that costs can only go up if you are not acquiring aircraft. UA did not do that and is essentially stuck with their present fleet for 5 years - and costs that will only go up because they cannot reduce costs through network growth as fast as they do through the natural cost increases that come from seniority based pay systems and older aircraft. UA had the highest costs in the industry while CO had the fastest growing costs. If growth is supposed to control costs, UA and CO both didn't do it right.

 

[Fly]

NitWit Alert!!!!


Sorry to all you folks at CO. WT's angry because no one wants to dance with Delta. He was hoping for a UA/DL merger and things don't look like that will happen. He's now predicting Delta World Domination once they figure out how to get out of bankruptcy. My youngest son is predicting he'll be a professional football player someday. I think my son and WT have a lot in common.

 

[superG]

NitWit Alert!!!!
Sorry to all you folks at CO. WT's angry because no one wants to dance with Delta. He was hoping for a UA/DL merger and things don't look like that will happen. He's now predicting Delta World Domination once they figure out how to get out of bankruptcy. My youngest son is predicting he'll be a professional football player someday. I think my son and WT have a lot in common.

UA would be a good fit with DL/CO/US as all three carriers fill a deep void that UA has in the South. Due to UA's retreat from NYC, perhaps either CO or DL are better partners for UA, however if UA goes with CO, the end result may have to divest some Asian routes, specifically to DL and possibly AA, to appease the opposition.

 

[DLFlyer31]

UA shrank its network in bankruptcy more than what DL has done so far and yet DL has reported better margins. Perhaps DL has put its capacity where it can make more money. And it doesn't hurt that DL has regained its position as the network carrier cost leader.

While UA may have shrunk more in BK, overall DL has shrunk just as much as UA. The only difference is that DL began shrinking long before they entered BK. DL has been shrinking its mainline fleet since 9/11.

I think you overestimate DL's ability to grow. DL will certainly pick up a small number of planes, but it won't be huge by any stretch. Not to mention that DL has a very old fleet (2nd oldest among legacies), that will need massive replacement over the next decade.

 

[Vikedog64]

While UA may have shrunk more in BK, overall DL has shrunk just as much as UA. The only difference is that DL began shrinking long before they entered BK. DL has been shrinking its mainline fleet since 9/11.

I think you overestimate DL's ability to grow. DL will certainly pick up a small number of planes, but it won't be huge by any stretch. Not to mention that DL has a very old fleet (2nd oldest among legacies), that will need massive replacement over the next decade.

Upon exiting BK, DL will secure a plane order of around 100 widebodies and narrowbodies. This coming from Jim Whitehurst at the last town hall meeting. Some will be to replace older planes, but the majority will be used for growth.

 

[DLFlyer31]

Upon exiting BK, DL will secure a plane order of around 100 widebodies and narrowbodies. This coming from Jim Whitehurst at the last town hall meeting. Some will be to replace older planes, but the majority will be used for growth.

It's nice that Whitehurst is that optimistic (and he has to be to attract exit financing), but reality speaks otherwise.

By 2016, DL will have 192 planes that are 25+ years in age. Not to mention 16 MD90's that are younger, but an oddball in the fleet.

Assuming DL wants to replace all of these planes (208) and assuming deliveries started in 2008 (DL won't exit BK until 2007), DL would need to receive 23 planes a year for nine consecutive years. Of course, we can credit DL for the ten ex-TWA 757's which would then require only 22 planes per year.

If DL wants to grow the mainline fleet by lets say 50, then DL would need to take delivery of ~27 planes per year.

Assuming at least one economic downturn in the next decade, these are NOT realistic delivery numbers. The only way DL would have a chance would be to acquire a chunk of another carrier, but even that would be difficult.

 

[WorldTraveler]

DL has reduced the mainline fleet but maintained ASMs by increasing utiliztion dramatically and yet DL maintained over 98% schedule reliability over the summer.


No one said that DL or any other US airline wants to maintain a certain fleet age. Of course, DL needs to replace its airplanes just like every US airline but some of the assumptions about aircraft age have to be revisited. The 757 and 767 are still highly competitive with the newest airplanes re: fuel efficiency so older age doesn't necessarily mean the planes are on the verge of being replaced.

The MD-80s are not competitive from a fuel perspective but DL is paying as little as $50k a month for them now so the higher fuel costs are more than offset by lower ownership costs. There is a point where that won't work as it is now for NW's DC9s but at $70/BBL oil, there is no urge to get rid of the MD80 or any other current type in DL's fleet.

You also fail to recognize that the older airplanes will be removed from all carriers' fleets when consolidation does occur.

I have no bones w/ CO but there are lots of people that have been surprised at how quickly they have lost their leadership position. Of course one summer doesn't a trend make but CO is no longer the cost leader, is trying to grow resulting in costs going up faster than than revenues, and will be the most leveraged airline after DL and NW come out of bankruptcy because CO management still believes they must have the youngest fleet in the network industry. That high leverage will present problems in the next downturn esp. if CO's revenue growth continues to stall and its costs rise. And despite what everyone wants to believe, CO will not be in a position to acquire UA or any other airline.

I have not ever said DL will dominate the world. I have said and will continue to say that DL will execute a turnaround that is more dramatic than any this industry has ever seen and will do it faster than it has ever been done. That turnaround is being noticed by more and more publications and analysts and you will see some very high profile positive coverage for DL in the coming weeks. DL's financial turnaround will allow it to get better exit financing that what other airlines have had which will not only allow them to acquire airplanes now but also put them in a very good position to acquire key industry assets when that time comes. I continue to believe that AA and DL will be the most significant acquirers of other carriers when consolidation hits. Since both AA and DL want the Pacific and AA can't really do much with UA, I believe ultimately AA will acquire NW in some form (although probably in a joint transaction with someone else) and DL will acquire the majority of UA including its Pacific and LHR operations and its ORD hub.

You can call that world domination if you want. I think it just comes down to a recognition that the world is shrinking very fast. DL's abundance of 767s have made it possible to grow an aweful lot now. The 777LRs will put them back in Asia and ultimately UA will give them a leadership position to Asia. All DL has to do to become a truly global carrier with a leadership position in the top US and foreign destinations is to become a financial leader among US airlines. All the indications are that DL is headed there very quickly.

 

[Fly]

You really need to put the bong down when you are typing these messages. The smoke is distracting your thinking. In your hazy blue mind, DL is now going to purchase UA's asian and lhr slots? LMAO YMBFKM. You inhaled, didn't you? WT, don't eat those mushrooms, they aren't what you think they are. You can be honest now.........they were eating these mushrooms when they came up with the Song interior, weren't they? I felt like I had taken off inside a giant skittles bag.



As you stated, the only way to become a true Global leader is to be the financial leader. Well, tip for you.....Delta is insolvent and struggling through bankruptcy, not quite what I'd call the 'financial leader'....more like the 'financially what NOT to do leader'. Are these the same 'leaders' that came up with Simplifares? That was a truly genius idea there. You even supported it WT. You thought it was a super great, neato idea, I remember.

And what is up with those new costumes the f/a's are wearing? They look like popcorn girls at the theatre.

 

[magsau]

Is DL ever going to exit BK? How long will the courts let them languish in BK not paying their bills and stealing their employees pension. They should all be hung and quartered. The govt should shut them down, blah blah blah blah.

What else did WT say about UAL? One thing is for sure WT you don't have asia and just how is the service to some of those obscure Euro trash destinations going to hold up in the next downturn in the industry? Not too many people wanting to travel to those non hub destinations in Europe in the winter. Makes more sense to pump them into CDG and let AF take them onward. But you guys have no play in Asia and too many widebodies for domestic service so you dumped them into the low yield vacation markets of Europe only to have it bite you in the bum in the near future.

Again I hope someone at DL can find WT and either get him some EAP help or a pink slip.

 

[Flufdriver]

Mags...By now I would expect the UPS driver getting pretty tired delivering that case of "Kool-Aid" to WT's house daily. My neighbor is a DAL pilot and he's is so full of BS...I offered him ten bucks the other day to bring me back from the airport some of it (Kool-Aid) for me to try...who knows, there maybe something to it...look how it works on WT!

Wt..you should run for mayor in ATL the way you build up DAL...after all they are way ahead of others that went BK!! Pretty simple..dump wages, pensions, leases and park planes... and put all your eggs in one basket (Int'l)sounds like the same plan everyone else did...but DAL did it RIGHT!! SWA doesn't go anywhere where you can't talk English and their doing quite well...wait until Int'l travel falls off do to world affairs...then what WT, run more 767-400's to FLL!!

 

[superG]

I think TWO questions are really in play here.

Is it plausable for US to take over/aquire some SA routes with equipment to US AIrways?

Short Answer? YES

WHY:
Delta still has one foot in the grave and another on a banana peel financially

In order to raise a truly significant amount of cash DL would need to sell something of real value so a bidding war would erupt over say the SA routes?

Plausible? YES
Possible? YES
Likely? Not Today

Don't underestimate DL....
The reconfigured 757's with "Song" equipment, which there are quite a few of, are better equipped than the competition....namely US,UA,AA. Basically Jet Blue with many more destinations. There is no reason why US needs DL except for int'l expansion and the good ole boys in ATL, both DL & Civic ain't gonna let that happen...just like the good ole boys in CLT don't want DL messing with US.