OCT/NOV 2012 US Pilots Labor Discussion

[cleardirect]

Just so everybody is clear.

Today, as in right now we have 522 East captains retiring in the next 5 years.(Not including guys out on medical, the list came from the active bid for age 60 conflicts) Plus around 300 f/o's going (didnt count the exact number)

By contrast the west has using clears numbers 189 total retiring in the next 5 years.

Play with the numbers all you want Clear, but the fact remains that most of those 522 east retiring captain seats gets transfered to the west under NIC.

The numbers only get bigger as we go past 5 years. By 2020 the east loses around 1800 while the west loses around 400. By 2025 its around 2700 east gone.

And yes you guys do not even want to talk about it since you know most of the east movement goes west due to the fact that fully 1/3 of the east list is not even included in the NIC list you like to calculate from. Like it or not the bottom 1/3 of the east active list is not going to lay down and let you take what they have waited so long for, not to mention the middle 1/3 that was never furloughed but ends up getting jumped big time due to the simple fact that the 2005 date used by NIC represented a very very short situation and that even by the time the NIC list was published did not represent the east active list in anyway.

Do you understand what the word most means?

Using your numbers 522 capt. (63%) plus 300 F/O's is total 822. 822 east plus 189 west total 1011 retirements in the next 5 years.

Nicolau gave the east 2/3 or 66.6% damn that is close to the 63% capt attrition you are going to get. So of the 822 you would get stand alone you are instead going to get 673. That is still the MAJORITY you understand majority is most of the attrition east not the west. The west over 5 years gains 149 or 30 per year using your numbers. I am not making this up the facts are here.

Talk about being greedy holy crap. You want 90% of the contract and all "your" attrition. What is in this for the west pilots? How is usapa representing the west fairly if they hand the east everything and nothing for the west?

What is the LUP of that?

 

[EastUS1]

Separate ops.

Now, just as soon as we determine that is the official usapa stance, the company and usapa will be sued in DFRII.

1) Seperate ops aren't a result of any grand conspiracy. That's merely a direct result of no combined west-east contract. You've insisted on the nic-or-nothing nonsense. OK-Fine. Stand up in any restaurant and announce that you've put a pound of poison into the soup and see how many order it afterwards. Don't like the fact that you haven't found any way to force-feed over two thousand people your "soup"? = Too bad for you!...Cry us all a river!

2) "...will be sued in DFRII." Get right on that! While you're at it; don't forget the "collusion" bs, and/or anything else that mighty little "army" of majestic "minds" of yours can fantasize. Good luck!

 

[Keroseneuser]

Do you understand what the word most means?

Using your numbers 522 capt. (63%) plus 300 F/O's is total 822. 822 east plus 189 west total 1011 retirements in the next 5 years.

Nicolau gave the east 2/3 or 66.6% damn that is close to the 63% capt attrition you are going to get. So of the 822 you would get stand alone you are instead going to get 673. That is still the MAJORITY you understand majority is most of the attrition east not the west. The west over 5 years gains 149 or 30 per year using your numbers. I am not making this up the facts are here.

Talk about being greedy holy crap. You want 90% of the contract and all "your" attrition. What is in this for the west pilots? How is usapa representing the west fairly if they hand the east everything and nothing for the west?

What is the LUP of that?

Your calculations using the NIC list excludes 1/3 of the east pilot group. Nobody on the east cares one bit what the list looked like in 2005. When they look at the upcoming attrition (1800 ish over the next 7 years) they are looking at 2 things. Movement seperate ops vs movement under NIC. Under NIC 2/3 of the east list gets boned. Frankly your only chance of getting the east to vote for nic was in 2005....however even by the time NIC was published that was gone since all furloughed guys were back on property.

I really don't know anyother way to tell you. Nobody cares about a list from 7 years ago. Right or wrong in your mind or anybody elses, that is where we are. Even by your numbers the west is getting retirement attrition that is not theirs, toss in the fact that 1/3 of long time east employees is not even in your calculations and you have something that will never pass, or probably even be proposed.

I understand your point of view, but the reality is the most junior pilot that is in the excluded part of your NIC list has about 9 years LOS with the company, the same or more as your most junior pilots. but under NIC your junior pilots would get upgrades long before EVERY pilot hired after 1988 on the east. So right or wrong, it will never be agreed on by the east. these are the reasons I say that at this point I believe all AOL can do is hurt the west pilots.

 

[cleardirect]

Your calculations using the NIC list excludes 1/3 of the east pilot group. Nobody on the east cares one bit what the list looked like in 2005. When they look at the upcoming attrition (1800 ish over the next 7 years) they are looking at 2 things. Movement seperate ops vs movement under NIC. Under NIC 2/3 of the east list gets boned. Frankly your only chance of getting the east to vote for nic was in 2005....however even by the time NIC was published that was gone since all furloughed guys were back on property.

I really don't know anyother way to tell you. Nobody cares about a list from 7 years ago. Right or wrong in your mind or anybody elses, that is where we are. Even by your numbers the west is getting retirement attrition that is not theirs, toss in the fact that 1/3 of long time east employees is not even in your calculations and you have something that will never pass, or probably even be proposed.

I understand your point of view, but the reality is the most junior pilot that is in the excluded part of your NIC list has about 9 years LOS with the company, the same or more as your most junior pilots. but under NIC your junior pilots would get upgrades long before EVERY pilot hired after 1988 on the east. So right or wrong, it will never be agreed on by the east. these are the reasons I say that at this point I believe all AOL can do is hurt the west pilots.

How do my numbers leave out 1/3 of the east? The are retirement number. They don't look at where on the list they come from. It does not matter if they are retiring from senior captain or junior F/O. Over 65 is over 65. No one is left out.

Yes the west pilots do upgrade before the pilots that were furloughed. As we have said from the beginning. The angry F/O club is holding up the entire airline because they think they are entitled to something the arbitrator did not give them.

To be clear no one is voting on the Nicolau list. We will vote on a new contract that includes the Nicolau list. If we merge we may not even get to vote and that new contract we are brought to implements the Nicolau list.

Still have not gotten an answer. If you get ALL "your" attrition and 90% of the contract what does the west get except screwed? What do the senior east guys get by waiting around for a contract so the east can get another 30 upgrades a year? The entire usapa experiment has been for less than 1000 junior east guys trying to steal something they could not get in a neutral arbitration.

 

[MUTATIS MUTANDIS]

Do you understand what the word most means?

Using your numbers 522 capt. (63%) plus 300 F/O's is total 822. 822 east plus 189 west total 1011 retirements in the next 5 years.

Nicolau gave the east 2/3 or 66.6% damn that is close to the 63% capt attrition you are going to get. So of the 822 you would get stand alone you are instead going to get 673. That is still the MAJORITY you understand majority is most of the attrition east not the west. The west over 5 years gains 149 or 30 per year using your numbers. I am not making this up the facts are here.

Talk about being greedy holy crap. You want 90% of the contract and all "your" attrition. What is in this for the west pilots? How is usapa representing the west fairly if they hand the east everything and nothing for the west?

What is the LUP of that?

Well lets get a handle on LUP or greed okay! INDULGE US! Because you know I will in the end MV! Starting with AWA number UNO take a SNAPSHOT! The WEST contribution? at the "SAME" DOH for AWA, and USAIRWAYS, my guess those AWA guys hired the very same day!, are about 1200 numbers senior to their usair counterpart, the guys that actually brought value to the airline, so go get a life the "NIC" DOA!

 

[MUTATIS MUTANDIS]

IF you start with AWA'S first pilot and track the hire classes ie 83 on down there are probably 40 classes that have the same seniority dates, AWA under the "NIC" are 1200 numbers senior to "EAST" pilots hired the same day! With substantial monetary advantage! Need examples will supply!

 

[Keroseneuser]

How do my numbers leave out 1/3 of the east? The are retirement number. They don't look at where on the list they come from. It does not matter if they are retiring from senior captain or junior F/O. Over 65 is over 65. No one is left out.

Yes the west pilots do upgrade before the pilots that were furloughed. As we have said from the beginning. The angry F/O club is holding up the entire airline because they think they are entitled to something the arbitrator did not give them.

To be clear no one is voting on the Nicolau list. We will vote on a new contract that includes the Nicolau list. If we merge we may not even get to vote and that new contract we are brought to implements the Nicolau list.

Still have not gotten an answer. If you get ALL "your" attrition and 90% of the contract what does the west get except screwed? What do the senior east guys get by waiting around for a contract so the east can get another 30 upgrades a year? The entire usapa experiment has been for less than 1000 junior east guys trying to steal something they could not get in a neutral arbitration.

The issue I am trying to point out to you is that by NIC leaving out the bottom 1/3 of the list, it affected the rest of the list all the way up so bad that you cannot possibly ever get anything NIC voted in. As much as you would like to believe that it is the angry F/O club, it is not. By leaving off 1/3 of east pilots that were back by the time NIC was published it affects most of the east captains as well.

It is simply a numbers game that was un winnable in a vote in 2007 when NIC came out and it has only got less votable since then.

The absolute bottom line is there will never be a NIC without a vote. And NIC screwed it up so bad that it can never get voted in. Standalone ops the west WILL stay exactly where they are until enough east pilots retire to make the point moot. The wests only remote possibility of seeing a NIC in my opinion is in a merger scenario with AA. But even then I would give NIC only about a 20% possibility, and only after years of court battles.

So for those reasons, i stand by my belief that the ONLY thing AOL can do at this point is hurt the west pilots.

I am not an officer of USAPA and for the most part just have a pilot to pilot passing relationship with the officers. But seeing what I see on line everyday, I can say that in my honest opinion there is zero chance of you ever seeing a NIC anything pass in a vote. I am not even sure you could get a middle of the road agreement passed by the east, but it would be close. So in that regard that is why i say AOL is destroying any chance of the west coming out of this stagnation for at least 5 years and probably more.

realistically the west only chance of NIC anything is in a AA deal. And I don't think even parker expects that to go anything other than 3 way.

 

[mrbreeze]

I like how you talk like an ass with a picture of your kid as your avatar.

My avatar has nothing to do with being up front with the lies and number spins that Clear repeatedly uses. I guanantee you that I can be much more of an ass when it comes to you guys leap frogging 14 yrs in seniority.

breeze

 

[prechilill]

Bular rumored to be demoted- now has to report to Seymore...
Almost all authority stripped...
The email- gate from Wednesday = severe problems for east- centric Flt ops management.
The east tyranny is coming to an end.

 

[mrbreeze]

Bular rumored to be demoted- now has to report to Seymore...
Almost all authority stripped...
The email- gate from Wednesday = severe problems for east- centric Flt ops management.
The east tyranny is coming to an end.

I am not sure what all this means, but there are many in the East that will be happy to hear this if it's true.

breeze

 

[Black Swan]

I agree. Nobody could figure why he got the job in the first place. He has never done anything for the line pilot. A decent enough guy, but what has he done? The jet blue upper echelon of flight managers are way more forward thinking. Alaska, SWA, the same.

I am not sure what all this means, but there are many in the East that will be happy to hear this if it's true.

breeze

I agree. Nobody could figure why he got the job in the first place. He has never done anything for the line pilot. A decent enough guy, but what has he done?

 

[cleardirect]

The issue I am trying to point out to you is that by NIC leaving out the bottom 1/3 of the list, it affected the rest of the list all the way up so bad that you cannot possibly ever get anything NIC voted in. As much as you would like to believe that it is the angry F/O club, it is not. By leaving off 1/3 of east pilots that were back by the time NIC was published it affects most of the east captains as well.

It is simply a numbers game that was un winnable in a vote in 2007 when NIC came out and it has only got less votable since then.

The absolute bottom line is there will never be a NIC without a vote. And NIC screwed it up so bad that it can never get voted in. Standalone ops the west WILL stay exactly where they are until enough east pilots retire to make the point moot. The wests only remote possibility of seeing a NIC in my opinion is in a merger scenario with AA. But even then I would give NIC only about a 20% possibility, and only after years of court battles.

So for those reasons, i stand by my belief that the ONLY thing AOL can do at this point is hurt the west pilots.

I am not an officer of USAPA and for the most part just have a pilot to pilot passing relationship with the officers. But seeing what I see on line everyday, I can say that in my honest opinion there is zero chance of you ever seeing a NIC anything pass in a vote. I am not even sure you could get a middle of the road agreement passed by the east, but it would be close. So in that regard that is why i say AOL is destroying any chance of the west coming out of this stagnation for at least 5 years and probably more.

realistically the west only chance of NIC anything is in a AA deal. And I don't think even parker expects that to go anything other than 3 way.

How is 1/3 of the east list left off? Every single east pilot is on the Nicolau list. If somehow you think that being at the bottom of the list is left off that is your mistake.

The reality of the situation was that of the 5000 east pilots only 3300 had a job at the time. It is to bad that 1/3 of your list was furloughed. But that does not mean that those furloughed pilots get to come back senior to west pilots. So by definition the next 1/3 bottom 1/3 active middle 1/3 of your entire list made up the bottom of the active list. They ended up exactly where they were on your stand alone list.

Show me a list that puts 1700 furloughs senior to active pilots. Show me any merged list using any method that puts more than a few furloughed pilots senior to active pilots. So logically,historically, by any reasonable thinking furloughed pilots would go to the bottom of the list.

So starting there it would be a windfall to have an active east pilot go from bottom junior reserve one number from furlough on his list to being senior to captain from the other airline on a merged list leaving a gap 1000 solid west pilot with only a couple hundred west pilots mixed in with 3000 east pilots. It is a SENIORITY INTEGRATION. Nicolau merged our two lists by seniority.

I agrre it is a number game. Accept you had as many pilots on furlough as the west had on our list. So any small movement to improve the angry F/O club does significant harm to the west pilots.

All of your pilots are on the nicolau list they just are not where they think they should be.

This thing is not going to go another 5 years. With or without a merger. As I have said before with a merger we are going to have a contract in place before the seniority arbitration between APA and usapa. That single agreement implements the Nicolau so we go into the next one with 2 lists.

As to your point about recalls AFTER and BECAUSE of the merger. it was 300 out of 1700 not 1/3 of anything. Now if you want to argue about who should be on the list the CEL guys should not be on the list. They never worked for mainline that has been proven twice at arbitration. But nicolau allowed none mainline pilots.

 

[Black Swan]

Clear direct. I think your 2005 era argument has been far eclipsed. I don't think it can be used rationally anymore in any integration. That was almost 8 years ago. That was old data and the landscape is far changed

 

[Claxon]

Part of Judge Silver Order;

"This is a hard case. As set forth in the parties’ summary judgment filings, the
underlying facts are undisputed but the appropriate conclusions to be drawn from those facts differ greatly. Having reviewed all of the filings and considered the arguments made bycounsel at the oral argument, the Court concludes Defendant US Airline Pilots Association (“USAPA&rdquo😉 is free to pursue any seniority position it wishes during the collective bargaining negotiations."

"This conclusion places US Airways in a difficult position. At the present time, it is
not possible to predict what will result from the collective bargaining negotiations. Thus, the Court cannot grant US Airways prospective immunity from any legal action by the West Pilots. But based on the representation at oral argument that the seniority list is unlike other matters addressed in collective bargaining, it is unlikely the West Pilots could successfully allege claims against US Airways merely for not insisting that USAPA continue to advocate for the Nicolau Award."

The company filed another motion to stall negotiations with the pilots in my humble opinion. Click on the link below.

http://leonidas.cactuspilots.us/Declatory_Relief/Doc196_Motion.pdf

 

[cleardirect]

Clear direct. I think your 2005 era argument has been far eclipsed. I don't think it can be used rationally anymore in any integration. That was almost 8 years ago. That was old data and the landscape is far changed

Simple question. Why has it changed? Simple answer BECAUSE of the merger. the merger changed your expectations.

Using your logic it would be appropriate to go back and reorder the east list because things have changed. Want to give the Piedmont and Empire guys their DOH? Want to give up the Kagel award because that has nothing to do with today if you believe what you say.

If we merge with american should we use their BK situation and 1113 contract with 1700 furloughed pilots or look back at their peak and use those facts?

If the east had accepted the Nicolau and we had gotten a contract there would be a different landscape. Seham tried that during the addington. Pointed to UN MERGED career expectation then used examples of POST MERGER.

what if Parker decides to move a bunch of flying and all the new 330's to PHX. would that be because of the merger? Would that change the situation in 2005?

there is not going to be a second merger between AWA and US Airways. No redo's, no do overs.