- Sep 3, 2012
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Routes after merger?
- Thread starter USnonrev16
- Start date
signals
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OP
- Sep 3, 2012
- 8
- 4
- Thread Starter
- #3
Ahhh, the what-ifs of an imaginary merger continue.
hahahaha i know i know... It's just too much fun!!! But seriously, you don't think it will happen?
I think you will see certain route frequency decreased in favor of larger planes. As was witnessed in other mergers certain city pairs will have hourly shuttle type service on smaller 2 class e jets and mainline.
NYC, will see immediate increase in frequency of service in all markets. There will be a tremendous push to upgrade the NYC markets for total customer convenience and a scorched earth policy for corporate business out of LGA. No doubt AA will be second out of LGA behind DL. And that will probably change to the number one status (depending on what happens at JFK and PHL intl').
DCA, if allowed to keep most of the slots will be one of the biggest winners. AA will be the number one carrier at DCA, as well as, most of the NE. If AA enters into codeshare with B6 then BOS probably see decrease in mainline. Otherwise a dogfight with B6 with lots of blood.
Phl may lose a little service. CLT will grow in flight frequency to incorporate many SE markets into the shuttle type service. Not sure what case can be made for more Carribean service out of CLT.
If the price of fuel goes through the roof, all bets are off.
NYC, will see immediate increase in frequency of service in all markets. There will be a tremendous push to upgrade the NYC markets for total customer convenience and a scorched earth policy for corporate business out of LGA. No doubt AA will be second out of LGA behind DL. And that will probably change to the number one status (depending on what happens at JFK and PHL intl').
DCA, if allowed to keep most of the slots will be one of the biggest winners. AA will be the number one carrier at DCA, as well as, most of the NE. If AA enters into codeshare with B6 then BOS probably see decrease in mainline. Otherwise a dogfight with B6 with lots of blood.
Phl may lose a little service. CLT will grow in flight frequency to incorporate many SE markets into the shuttle type service. Not sure what case can be made for more Carribean service out of CLT.
If the price of fuel goes through the roof, all bets are off.
robbedagain
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LD3
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There seems to be a lot of chatter on this board about the dehubbing of PHX, which is probably going to happen. But, I woundn't think that US would turn the keys over to WN, doesn't PHX have a decent O&D numbers? I would think that PHX would be on hell of a focus city..
robbedagain
Veteran
ld3 ive always thought that phx would be going from hub to focus city similar to dca as focus city i doubt this mgmt team would turn the keys over to wn
In some current hub-hub routes, that will definitely happen. Examples like ORD-CLT, ORD-PHL and ORD-PHX. Plus DFW-CLT/PHL/PHX. There is a little overlap in those hub-hub markets where schedule rationalization and perhaps upgrades to larger jets (in the cases where both US and AA are currently flying small RJs, for instance).
Problem is, LGA slots will be the limiting factor. There will be a few of them freed up from duplicate routes, like LGA-CLT (AA flies some daily flights) but overall, thanks to the slot giveaway to DL, there won't be a lot of extra LGA slots and thus, there cannot be huge growth. Parker screwed the pooch on that one. Had he kept the LGA slots, the combined US-AA would have half the LGA slots just like DL does now. I can see fewer small Dash flights between LGA and PHL, as the third quarter O&D was just under 5 passengers per day each way on that route. Every passenger on those flights is connecting (or commuting). That's not a profitable way to use valuable slots. Just more evidence that Parker's not fit to run the combined airline, but that's water under the bridge at this point.
Bottom line: No way does AA-US overtake DL at LGA. DL has more than 45% of the LGA slots. AA has 20% and US has 11%. So that means that DL will have 45% and US-AA will be a distant second at 31%. Parker's genius shines brightly. What an effing idiot.
Here's where it gets even sadder. The government limited US to 50% of the DCA slots when Parker traded away the LGA slots (recall the forced slot divestitures?) and thus, there's little chance that US-AA is not forced to divest slots equal to AA's current holdings (which are about as many as DL gave US in the slot scam). So US-AA will probably have the same number of slots as US does now. And fewer than one-third of the LGA slots. If the slot giveaway had not happened, a combined US-AA would have 50% of the slots at LGA and about 50% at DCA.
IMO, CLT will not be dismantled or de-hubbed, but it may not grow. In fact, it may contract some. Sure, it has very low airport costs and very high yield on the O&D traffic but it has just slightly more O&D than the much smaller RDU (which serves a much smaller metro area population). It remains to be seen if it makes economic sense for US-AA to fly to various European and South American cities from CLT when nearly everyone on the flights connected from somewhere else.
The analyst's frequent case for why AA needs a SE connecting hub have all been based on the need to be able to connect the hypothetical RIC-JAX passengers (of which there are very few). But if someone from RIC or JAX is heading overseas, AA already connects those places to its huge gateway of MIA. MIA is a lousy hub for connecting domestic passengers, but it's a great gateway for internationally-bound passengers. Much higher O&D to Europe, Caribbean, Central and South America.
I don't think PHX will be shutdown, but let's face it - HP began turning over the keys to WN in 1982. In those 30 years, WN has grown to 173 daily departures (every flight a 737) to 47 nonstop destinations. That's WN's fourth largest station, after MDW, LAS and BWI. Two of those cities should look familiar to US employees (as US formerly had huge operations in both). How does US compare at PHX?
US currently has 174 mainline flights and 85 express flights each day to 75 nonstop destinations (10 of which are international). WN is a huge force in PHX. US is still larger, but not by much, and adding AA isn't going to increase the size much (AA is very small in PHX).
PHX will be less important as a connecting hub (DFW will work for many eastbound connections where the only US choice now is PHX). DFW has lots of unused capacity and AA dominates DFW. US won't abandon PHX but I wouldn't count on it staying the same size. And WN already matches US in number of mainline flights.
OP
- Sep 3, 2012
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- 4
- Thread Starter
- #11
That was an awesome post FWAAA. But I'm still curious about when non revs would be allowed to fly on AA's routes? Would it be immediate? I guess that's mainly a question for people who have gone through a merger before
wings396
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- Aug 20, 2002
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As I'm sure that you know, Sabre is and has been used by US on the operational side since 1999. We also used Sabre on the Res side until the merger with HP, and for some reason they went with Shares instead. This IMO was a huge mistake, but that's all in the past. As far as I know, there is no connection between the 2 systems.
robbedagain
Veteran
in light of all of the activity im waiting to hear wt response anyone else surprised wt has not yet commented on possible route structure fwaa thats a great post and i like how you broke it all down... but with us current in dfw they go to phx clt dca phl i dont know how much of a loss phx would take but i think it wont be as big as say pit took but time will tell
I agree - I don't see PHX getting STL'd or PITted. But it might be difficult to maintain its current level of operations if connecting traffic heads directly from the spoke to ORD or DFW instead of heading thru PHX first. Fortunately, PHX is a huge (and growing) metro area and there aren't a lot of low-fare alternative airports (like there are for PIT). And lucky for everyone, WN has its hands full with its ill-advised multi-billion dollar purchase of FL.
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