Lets assume for the moment that the east loses LOA 93 and the company gets their injunction.
I would guess that a representational card drive would then be attempted. The timeline for such an effort would begin in the fall and conclude in the spring. This would coincide with USAPA officer elections which will also take place in the spring of 2012 (won't that be fun to watch).
So my question is this: if an ALPA card drive is successful, does this indicate that the east has abdicated and is now willing to accept the Nic, or, does a return to ALPA take us back to the status quo ante - where two separate MEC's exist, the west has its veto/ratification authority returned, and a slim possibility that a non Nic/DOH solution can yet be explored?
Or is an IBT card drive more likely to succeed?
My intuition tells me that staying on the present legal course will become increasingly untenable. It comes down to simple dollars. Even a DOH victory 3 years from now will never compensate for the money lost after ten years under LOA93 - and that includes attrition generated upgrades in the meantime.
Remember, when we last left the scene, ALPA had made no final determination on the seniority dispute. The east MEC had just filed a lawsuit against the west MEC, Wye River was tried and failed, ALPA had formed the Rice panel, etc.
Or am I off the reservation on this?