Black Swan
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- Dec 13, 2009
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Even in a perfect world where the only factor that affects US' stock price is the LOA 93 decision, the current situation - no increase in pay - is baked into the price. Nothing would be saved above what is currently being saved. So a US win would not increase the price since it would not change costs. On the other hand, a US loss would drop the stock price a lot more than a measly 4% - 40% would be more like it. But we're not dealing with that perfect world - just look at the other carriers' stock prices. All down. Is that due to LOA 93 as well???
Seems like you've run out of straws to grasp and only have a little chaff left...![]()
Jim
Your argument makes no sense. How do you "bake" this in the price? Baked in as much as a non hedged carrier can be with regard to oil prices. Oil ups and downs hit this stock regularly. The effect of a win or loss on LOA 93 would be an event that would move the stock significantly on the day of the event, then it would smooth out. Tell us what is "baked" in- the win or the loss?