Wow, lots of folks sure seem riled up after the election.
What we have is not a surprise. I doubt that even if a court says NIC is it that we can ever get a NIC TA passed for these two reasons: Every east pilot hired after 1988 would be voting to staple themselves below every west pilot on the property. Those hired after 1988 make up more than 1/3 of the east list right now. For the middle 1/3 of the east list the NIC list is almost as bad as it is for the 1988 and after guys. 2/3 of the east group really cannot vote for anything NIC without shooting themselves in the career foot.
To be honest about all this about the only time anything NIC could have passed in a general vote would have been right before the east guys were recalled, 5 years ago. As it stands now with almost 1800 retirements coming on the east in the next 8.5 years and every current and newhire on the east bidding off all those retirements I don't see how anything NIC can ever get passed vote wise. No matter how you look at it F/O or Capt. voting for NIC means putting up to 1600+ people above you that are not above you now.
If I were one of the newhires that we will be seeing in the near future i would not vote for a NIC scenario unless it was a wad of cash. What we have seen from tempe is not going to do it.
Basically you will need tempe to come up with a true industry standard contract to have a chance at it. Since we only made around 60 mill last year if memory serves and Doug is a numbers guy thats not going to happen. Speaking for myself I prefer to be able to bid the position I want and choose my quality of life without having to commute over making an extra 20 grand or so a year. Maybe it is the 15 years that I had to commute and being bounced around bases with not much say in the matter that has made me feel that way but a casual look at the east bid results shows that I am not alone in that feeling. There are huge numbers of east pilots now that CAN hold a higher paying position now but are not bidding it due to quality of life issues. For me QOL is more important than any money increase I have seen tempe come up with.
I think a huge issue between the east and west is the lack of understanding why the east pilot votes the way he does. It seems that the west guys I have talked to have a "regional" mentality when it comes to bidding, not in a derogatory way, i simply mean that for the west pilot they really never had to put much thought into bidding from a QOL standpoint, they either bid PHX or LAS, and now just PHX. No matter what they bid it did not affect their QOL to a huge degree other than reserve or lineholder. On the east we have reserve or line, commute to reserve or line, commute to international or line, left seat small bus reserve or right seat line holding heavy for about equal pay, work 20 days a month as a junior captain or work 10 days a month as senior heavy f/o for the same money etc etc. Simply put tossing up to 1600 pilots above you by voting yes really limits the above choices for you. The NIC just did too much damage to a east pilots QOL choices and caused the situation we have now.
I just looked at the senior 190 F/O's in PHL, there are many more still bidding to stay on it that are not seat locked than I would have imagined. That is a QOL bid. Same with the rest of the fleet types, the international f/o line holders have large numbers of guys that can hold 320 or 73 Capt. but they don't want it. Again because it would probably put them back on reserve or make them commute etc. I bet the west captains understand my point more than the f/o's do. I am sure there is a large number of them that would not dream of bidding to the east for the same reasons.
If you have never commuted you probably wont understand what I am talking about. If like me you have had to endure many years of commuting you know exactly what I mean. $20,000 more dollars a year is not enough to go back to that hell for me, it will take much better from tempe before I will willingly commute.
So we have a catch 22, we need a good contract to ever get a NIC T/A voted in....we cannot get a good contract without some kind of combined list. As long as both side stick with DOH and NIC we will go nowhere. For me I will never vote for anything NIC for the above reasons, however I would vote for something middle of the road that is neither DOH or NIC that does less damage to my above choices, I am far from alone in my thought on this from what I have seen and heard.
But we will never see any compromise from the west DFR flag wavers so I am content to go on making what i am making and choosing what base, equipment and schedule that I want. I don't work most weekends, I rarely miss a family event or occasion such as birthdays or kids games etc. NIC most likely means I would be back to working the holidays and missing such events. Kirby is not worth it, not by a long shot. And I am not willing to gamble the above events and occasions by voting for a NIC combined list on the almost nonexistant chance that Doug would offer up industry leading or standard contract.