I've been following this board for some time now and thought I'd chime in.
Something a lot of the anti-union crowd seem to underestimate is the marketability of the AMT skill set.
What NWA was able to accomplish in response to the AMFA strike will more than likely never be repeated.
AMTs in the airline industry commanded a high wage for a very good reason, actually several. Just a few are...
The dynamic work enviorment,hazards and physical demands
The off shift/rotation requirements
The knowledge/training requirements for an industry constantly introducing both new procedures and technologies.
Industries outside of aviation pay premiums far in excess of those currently afforded AMTs for these types of considerations.
9-11 put thousands of AMTs(and other airline employees) out of work. This was both sudden and unexpected. Many of these individuals were not prepared for/thinking of a career change. As such many of them stayed with what they knew(aircraft maintenance)at a substantially reduced rate, i.e., OSVs.
As the economy continues to recover, many of these individuals will seek better paying jobs elsewhere, outside the aviation industry.
Just to illustrate, UAL is currently recalling mechanics due to an attrition rate near 10%.
Something more. Both NWA and UAL went to PEBs during their last beneficial contract negotiations. During these proceedings, the wage comparisons with mechanics outside the industry was made. While NWA settled prior to their PEBs final report, UAL did not and the PEB recommended a wage of $35+ an hour avg. It is worthy of note, UALs PEB came AFTER 9-11.
The situation that we see unfolding today was only made possible by those mechanics suddenly/unexpectedly dumped onto the market. Prior to 9-11 the industry was in the midst of an AMT shortage. With headline grabbing decimation of the wages and benefits of this industry, the airlines will be hard pressed to find trained and willing replacements. Those with training and experience,will not remain in lower paying OSV employment indefinitely. Nor will the next generation of technically skilled individuals even consider this industry. They will seek their careers in more rewarding/higher paying fields elsewhere.