WorldTraveler:
if you want to rest on the hope that if AA/US fails, then the whole industry will be possible, you might want to take a look in the rearview mirror at PA, TW, and EA among others.
The industry did not go through bankruptcy even when those carriers failed.
If AA cannot turn itself around quickly on its own and either merge successfully with US - in a process that will take an enormous amount of time - or survive as a standalone or with a partner of AA's choosing, then other carriers will pick up the business.
AA is in the position it is in precisely because other carriers moved on and are succeeding and AA did not move on and are not succeeding.
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WT, of course others will pick up the pieces, there will always be an airline industry. Do we want a industry that is always in failing flux or one that is stable and producing decent paying jobs? It would be a travesty to let AA become the lowest paid in the industry with a second trip thru BK (believe me I know, having endured US 2 trips thru). While it may mean bragging rights for airline CEOs' to sit around and talk about who has the lowest labor costs, there is no way it is good for the industry or the employees.
If AA goes thru a second time don't you think that things will be rearranged at some point at the remaining airlines who have already worked so hard to succeed to the point they are today? A restructured AA with 2 trips thru BK under its' belt would surely be the lowest of the low and would certainly make DL and UA have the highest labor costs in the industry, not to mention even WN. And we all know when you have a competitor with that labor cost advantage how it eventually decimates the others.
AA needs US as much as US needs AA in order to keep wages from fallling thru the floor and once again making a mess out of the entire industry. Because next time around it may be DL on the chopping block.
Nowhere did I say I want AA/US to fail IF it occurs... but neither is it a given that it will succeed and in all honestly given the success of mergers in the US airline industry, the chances are strongly against it working well.
In the meantime, other competitors will keep building their business... that's not a desire of mine... that is just reality.
And your point that failing airlines drag down the whole pack doesn't explain why there are such significant differences in pay between workgroups of EXISTING airlines.... there is more than a 50% difference in pay on the same types of aircraft for pilots in the US airline industry - and even among network airlines. Percentage-wise the difference is not as great for other workgroups but there are still significant differences in pay between different airlines for the same job title...
If those kinds of differences can be sustained right now, there is no reason to believe that if one airline falters, it will drag down the whole pack.
True bad managers continue to exist, but how can you price a seat when the price doesn't even cover the cost? You're flying at a loss, and you keep it going until you hit a wall, called bankruptcy. Then you abrogate union contracts, screw the creditors in a kangaroo court and start all over again? This you call success? The whole thing ( deregulaion ) is a colossal failure. The entire industry is now McDonalized, with minimum waged no benefit employees. For what purpose but to serve the undeserving, passengers who should be pack packing on Greyhound buses now flying in airline seats for less than what they should be paying.
Since deregulation its been mostly red ink, before it was black ink for most of the industry. Yes LUV has been the consistent profiteer in this debate, but passengers yearn for more services on longer flights. So the LUV formula, works for them not the once legacies like AA.
Again, tell me how is deregulation a success for the airline industry and its employees?
Deregulation washed the pride out of this business plain and simple, and replaced it with shame.
The simple answer is that not every airline is failing. There have been profitable airlines for a number of years... it has just largely been a low cost carrier vs. legacy carrier split. Now, there are legacy airlines that are consistently making money, even if it is not at the same levels they have made in the past.
Capacity is more controlled now than it has been since deregulation and the influx of new capacity from low fare carriers has slowed to a trickle in comparison.
Unbridled growth in capacity is exactly why prices fell for 30 years and why network carrier employees paid the price.
That dynamic is not in play as it once was....
While AA is still in the middle of a difficult restructuring, it may be hard to see the progress the rest of the industry has made but it is most certainly there.
I've never said and never will say that deregulation was good for airline employees... it did a huge amount of damage.
BTW, the airline industry did not make enough money even during the regulated era to pay the cost of borrowing necessary to buy airplanes, build facilities etc.
There is a reason why it has been said that if anyone had anyone had any idea what would have developed in the airline industry, they should have shot down the Wright brothers' airplane.
