US Pilots Labor Discussion 9/29-10/7

[BoeingBoy]

Well...

cleardirect covered most of the errors in your logic if Nic is used:

- UA furloughed go to bottom but US furloughed (both sides) get slotted in as if they were active...that's currently 300+ US that wouldn't be blended with UA active

- The big block of UA pilots at the top before using ratios to mix the other active pilots (due to UA's 747/777 fleets)...probably the top 1000 positions, 800 if the A333 were considered equivalent to the 777

- Blending UA captains with US f/o's (there would be some at the margins due to reserves that hold capt out of seniority order due to some above them preferring QOL to the upgrade)

So assuming the Nic methodology, 800-1000 UA followed by a mix of US/UA 76/A332 captains (mostly UA due to the fleet sizes) followed by a mix of UA/US 737/A320 family captains (closer to 1:1) then repeated with the f/o's.

Off the top of my head without looking at the relative numbers of each aircraft type, say 500 at the top of the Nic list (East) plus the next 100 or so 757 capt (mostly East currently) and the start of the mixing for the 737/A320 famile to reach #2500 on the combined list (a mixture of East and West)...maybe 800-1000 US pilots in there with most East. Mabe 200-300 senior West pilots. The exact methodology could change the numbers some - would the A332 be classified a separate type for merging the lists (below the 777 and A333 but above the 767, would the A333 be considered the equivalent of the 777, etc?

Jim

 

[ClueByFour]

I've got news for you dude, any seniority list integration would involve "THE" Seniority Lists respectively as defined in the respective CBAs, none of which are Nic. Wake's order has only to do with negotiating our own CBA and nothing to do with any integration that may happen before that is done.

Yeah. But UA has numbers. Which means:

1. You are back in ALPA. Heeereee's the NIC.

2. The 9th overturns addington. UAL pilots form UALAPA and staple the entire US/HP list, because they can.

 

[A320 Driver]

Yeah. But UA has numbers. Which means:

1. You are back in ALPA. Heeereee's the NIC.

2. The 9th overturns addington. UAL pilots form UALAPA and staple the entire US/HP list, because they can.

Of course, if they split the company up ( East goes ___ / West goes ___), isn't the whole thing a moot point anyway? I personally think that is a more likely scenerio and each group will fend for itself and NIC rides off into the sunset.

Driver B)

 

[Freighterguynow]

Look at the Nicolau list. A junior east f/o is next to a junior west f/o. A junior east captain is next to a junior west captain. That is relative.

Exactly, now look at the Nic list circa 2009 and try to mesh it using 100 East and 1500 UAL furloughs.

While BBoy does bring up some valid points about widebodies etc - 90% (my opinion) of the weight in the Polar/Atlas, US Airways/AWA and Delta/NWA is just a straight and simple percentile merge.

THAT is where the train comes off the tracks IMO.


We'll just have to agree to disagree I suppose.

 

[cleardirect]

Exactly, now look at the Nic list circa 2009 and try to mesh it using 100 East and 1500 UAL furloughs.

While BBoy does bring up some valid points about widebodies etc - 90% (my opinion) of the weight in the Polar/Atlas, US Airways/AWA and Delta/NWA is just a straight and simple percentile merge.

THAT is where the train comes off the tracks IMO.


We'll just have to agree to disagree I suppose.

Don't forget the 150 west pilots on furlough also. Plus the possible 100 more east 190 pilots.

I made my point the last time. “each merger turns on its own factsâ€￾ The arbitrator would use a different methodology to keep the train on the tracks. Unless of course a party to the agreement decides to duck their obligation and try to rewrite or invent new law.

One more thing about the last post. Using the numbers provided. 6478 – 1500. 4978 active pilots. We know that it takes about half captains and half f/o to run an airline. If as you say 1996 will get you a captain slot and 1999 hires are furloughed. That means that 2489 pilots were hired at UAL in 3 years between 1996-1999. Somehow I don’t think that is the case. That is the problem with trying to project without all the facts. That is the reason it took 8 days of arbitration to sort out the facts of our merger.

Looking at two lists and trying to use the facts from one merger as the facts of another will get bad results because bad data was used.

 

[luvn737s]

Of course, if they split the company up ( East goes ___ / West goes ___), isn't the whole thing a moot point anyway? I personally think that is a more likely scenerio and each group will fend for itself and NIC rides off into the sunset.

Driver B)

Below the wing and backoffice have already been integrated, so it's very pilot-centric to think that the airline could simply be split.

 

[mach92flyr]

All this merger talk is fun. Too bad the reality is that US Titanicways more likely scenario is Chapter 7 liquidation. I predicted this the day AWA saved AAA from certain death.
The AWA Hobie Cat, skimming the waves with no furloughs and aircraft on order cannot pull up the US Titanicways (halfway under,unable to cover its' last payroll) and save it. Hooking up with the most hated airline, with a failed business plan, could only mean certain death for both airlines.
This will save the industry and push UAL and CAL together to compete with DAL/NWA. SWA rules LAS, PHX, PHL and CLT (they will be there soon) and also swallows Alaska and its all 737 fleet. AA wallows along, eventually pulling out of its funk. Republic emerges with its own name, retiring the Frontier/Midwest names and maybe merges with AirTran and/or Skywest. Remember you heard it here first.

 

[ableoneable]

Of course, if they split the company up ( East goes ___ / West goes ___), isn't the whole thing a moot point anyway? I personally think that is a more likely scenerio and each group will fend for itself and NIC rides off into the sunset.

Driver B)

What you "split the company" story pushers forget is that we no longer have two air carrier certificates. The only way to split up the company would be to transfer either east or west to a new certificate so that they could continue to fly before they were merged/combined with the American or Continental or whatever carrier each is merged into.

Until you see a transfer of pilots and airplanes to another certificate this rumor looks quite dead.

 

[BoeingBoy]

90% (my opinion) of the weight in the Polar/Atlas, US Airways/AWA and Delta/NWA is just a straight and simple percentile merge.

Because the fleets were largely comparable. Even in the US/AWA merger, over 90% of the two fleets were 757/737/A320 family. So the majority of active pilots were blended together using the ratio of 757's and 737/A320's in the two fleets. That wouldn't be the case with a US/UA merger because of the disparity in the amount widebodies in each fleet. If the PID were today, UA would have about 20% more 747's than US has widebodies, about 150% more 777's than US has widebodies, and 50% more 767's than US has widebodies. Put that all together and UA has about 5 times as many widebodies as US, putting a 5 UA pilots in the top part of any combined list for each US pilot, and those US pilots would almost entirely be East. Then you get to the 757's, where UA has nearly 5 times as many as US - that would give a 5 UA:1 US ratio for that portion of the list. Only when the 737/A320 family pilots were merged would US have an advantage in he number of airframes - the ratio would be about 3 US pilots per 2 UA pilots - but with a combined 9-10K non-furloughed pilots you'd be about 40% of the way down the captain and then f/o list before reaching the 737/A320 slots.

So the top 2500 of any combined list would be mostly UA under the Nic methodology, with most of the US pilots that made it into the top 2500 being East pilots.

Jim

 

[HPDriver]

I wonder if this changes USAPA's strategy.

Considering they're putting such heavy weight on it and its their only means of leverage.

http://blogs.wsj.com/middleseat/2009/10/02...y-anytime-soon/

 

[BoeingBoy]

The strategy as it pertains only to the "snapback" (restoration, whatever) can't change much since it's not an impasse in contract negotiations, just a difference of opinion on the meaning of the language in the current contract. As such, it is handled through the grievance process. I guess it's open to debate what happens if USAPA loses the grievance - will Bradford or someone else attempt to form another new union in an effort to bypass that arbitrator's decision or will USAPA accept it (the can of worms that would be opened if Addington is reversed).

In contract talks, nothing much is going to happen till Addington is resolved - if for no other reason than the mediator's availability. Getting an impasse declared is not likely anytime soon.

Jim

 

[nycbusdriver]

What you "split the company" story pushers forget is that we no longer have two air carrier certificates. The only way to split up the company would be to transfer either east or west to a new certificate so that they could continue to fly before they were merged/combined with the American or Continental or whatever carrier each is merged into.

Until you see a transfer of pilots and airplanes to another certificate this rumor looks quite dead.

So then, given this logic Eastern could have never sold off the Shuttle to another party, like Donald Trump.

Or, another way to look at it: All of USAirways (east and west) is operating under an FAA approved program, and thereby LCC has an FAA operating certificate. If everybody at LCC is doing things in a way that is already FAA approved, why would the FAA necessarily object to splitting the certificate into two certificates covering two groups that, though doing things identically, are doing those things in an already-approved manner.

(Hint: It's been done before. It's not a stumbling block. Are there other straws available to grasp?)

 

[aquagreen73s]

This airline is leased several times over which is a significant difference from EAL. You can't just "sell" parts without untangling the web of secured creditors who would be impacted either directly or indirectly. It's one thing to swap slots as the vast majority of assets elsewhere (which are encumbered) are not affected; it's just a rearrangement with the final sum being the same as before. A sell-off of part of the airline is possible, but it would be far more complicated than you think.

Reality is that the only sort of transaction in the future would be a full blown merger with another airline. All the wishing and hoping at this point won't change the reality of Nicolau.

 

[electricjet98]

- UA furloughed go to bottom but US furloughed (both sides) get slotted in as if they were active...that's currently 300+ US that wouldn't be blended with UA active

Jim

I agree with the remainder Jim, but you lost me on this one. With the possible exception of the west pilots that were furloughed out of Nic seniority order, why would "US furloughed (both sides) get slotted in as if they were active"?...then go on to say "that's currently 300+ US that wouldn't be blended with UA active"?

 

[BoeingBoy]

before any sale could be consummated a split or separate certificate would have to be obtained.

Not really, unless you're talking about a sale to an entity that doesn't have a certificate of it's own and wants to buy a turnkey operation or a carrier that wants a separate operation (ala Repbulic Holdings with Republic, Shuttle America, and Chataqua). Except for those special cases, selling different parts of the airline to different buyers is merely fragmentation. The buyers would already have an operating certificate that the bought operation would be merged with.

Aside from the Eastern Shuttle, consider the TWA dissolution - parts sold off to various buyers with the remainder to AA.

As someone already mentioned, untangling the financial web would be the hard part of splitting US up - which buyer would take on which debt (not counting EETC's that would go with the airplanes financed that way).

Jim