Captain Underpants
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- Jan 6, 2009
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Ok then you project around 140/yr. for a total of 700 East vacancies to new hires over 5 years. Since that would not even cover age 65 attrition you must be assuming ether a change to the FAA mandated retirement age to around age 68 or another bankruptcy with an abrogation of the pilot contracts.Tell me the exact effect of the final version of the new flight time/crew rest regs and when they'll go into effect and I'll take a stab at it.
Based on today's rules and assuming the fleet remains static (+/- 1 or 2), my off the top of my head guess (not having looked at the exact number of retirements lately) is an average of 120-130/year after an initial 20 for float and 75 for 332's replacing 737/A320's (ETOPS needs more pilots/plane) - call it 700 total over 2012-2016 for a round number.
Jim
Remember your bid closing experience was over a period of time that included massive negative variables including contract productivity changes, reduction of fleet types from 14 to 4, multiple base closings, negative growth, and bankruptcies etc.
Your numbers imply around a 3 to 1 ratio of net vacancies East to West. The minimum possible ratio with just age 65 attrition is 4 to 1. Just a conservative estimate with other projected variables over the next five years would be closer to an actual 6 to 1 net vacancy ratio. The actual East/West net vacancy ratio for the last 5 years has been around 8 to 1. Of course you know to maintain the pre-merger relative positions would require a 2 to 1 ratio.
I still don't see how it is possible use any kind of relative position integration method in this merger without generating an 8 figure windfall for the junior side.
Your 140/yr. vs. my 300/yr. so one or both of us will be wrong. Thanks for posting your projections and we'll see how it goes.
underpants