Possible UA/US Merger Thread III

[USA320Pilot]

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Divided we stand, United we fall (US Airways-United Merger Analysis)!

The IAG team does a quick review of the possible merger between United and US Airways and it looks nasty. As the table clearly illustrates United is the industry's weakest link. As stated in the podcast, the bear only has to catch the weakest - but there is more than one carnivore doing the chasing, so nobody is really safe.

That said, United and US Airways can clearly be bled to death by Southwest. The weakest are up against the strongest and the situation is dire. Merging the two weakest adds not one bit to a more secure future. Indeed, US Airways should reject United's overtures forthwith as the bear will catch United first. US Airways may be able to escape if the industry's fortunes turn within the year. For United, all things remaining the same, the year looks like being lunch.

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Regards,

USA320Pilot

 

[USA320Pilot]

What About Airlines? So far, it's been all talk and no consolidation, reports CNBC's David Faber

Click here to view and listen to David Faber's CNBC report.

Regards,

USA320Pilot

 

[767jetz]

Get connected and check out ATWOnline's latest Podcast!

Divided we stand, United we fall (US Airways-United Merger Analysis)!

The IAG team does a quick review of the possible merger between United and US Airways and it looks nasty. As the table clearly illustrates United is the industry's weakest link.

For United, all things remaining the same, the year looks like being lunch.

You must be joking. Do you post this stuff just for the headlines, thinking (knowing) that most people are not going to spend the time to actually listen to these pod casts or question their credentials?

I listened to that one plus another by this so-called "Innovation Analysis Group" and they are obviously amateur hour, side chair analysts with a bias against anything United. Not exactly a credible group. In fact during the pod cast they don't even tell you who these people are, what their background is, or what experience they have. They refer to each other by first name, like a bunch of "average Joe's" on a three way call.

I mean what professional, respected financial analysts use words like "chapter 22" to refer to a second bankruptcy? Is that a technical term? Give me a break. At least post something from a credible source.

They refer to SW over and over again. As if SW is threat to UA's international operation?

Then they keep referring to UA's current cash flow, using the Q1 results to extrapolate that UA has only 1 year until running out of money. Does any respected financial analyst out there not understand that Q1 is always UA's worst quarter? Does any accountant out there not understand that insolvency is matter of liquidity?

Obviously as I've posted several times now, UA has far greater ability to borrow against unencumbered assets than their peers. Meaning UA is far from being the first candidate for another bankruptcy.

I still have my doubts that a UA/US merger will happen. But if it does, the financial community, and those with the opinions that matter, all say that UA will driving the terms.

Here is some info on your IAG, for those interested in researching their credibility:
Innovation Analysys Group

 

[USA320Pilot]

767jetz,

The Podcast came from Air Transport World, which is one of the or maybe the most respected commercial air transport avaition periodicals.

In my opinion, US Airways and United must merge to obtain the $1.5 billion in synergies to survive because energy costs are skyrocketing. There is a reason that United apparently has no other merger alternative than US Airways and that both Delta and Continental left United before the parties even got to the alter.

Regards,

USA320Pilot

 

[jabroni30]

My two cents on this thing, I don't think US should merge with UA, I like UA, but I'm looking out for US's best interest, not looking at it from a business sense, looking at it so to as where we can keep our jobs, that's all that matters to me, keeping our jobs. Ua is a good airline, hopefully they can form an alliance with CO, and if US has to merge, I think AS, and B6 would be suitable options, minimum job loss, strengthen our west coast presence with AS, and New York with B6. I don't think F9 would be a good option, cause they will probably get run out of den with wn and ua. I'm just tired of worrying about keeping my job, I've done it for 7 years at northwest, thats all I heard, that I might lose my job, with HP I never heard it, even with hp/us I never heard it, but I'm already hearing it with us/ua and it's not even official that we merged.

 

[N965VJ]

<SNIP> I mean what professional, respected financial analysts use words like "chapter 22" to refer to a second bankruptcy? Is that a technical term? Give me a break.

I don’t know how credible the analysts are, but the term “Chapter 22â€￾ is slang for a company that has filed Chapter 11 twice.

There’s even an unrelated reference directly to US at this law firm’s website (based in Pittsburgh):

Q: What is Chapter 22 bankruptcy? Do any prominent examples come to mind?

A: US Airways is an example of a company in serial bankruptcy. Because companies often emerge from Chapter 11 undercapitalized, many reorganized companies will slip back into bankruptcy. Once a company slips back in, it is frequently liquidated or sold. Because companies know a Chapter 22 often means liquidation, many may liquidate outside of bankruptcy rather than file again.

US Airways is an example of a very large company in bankruptcy protection that is very visible in the news media. Because it is relatively easy for a small company to file for bankruptcy protection without their creditors getting early notice, it is always good to contact a creditors' rights law firm for advice when you are having payment problems with your key accounts.

Link

 

[Ignacio]

and if US has to merge, I think AS, and B6 would be suitable options, minimum job loss, strengthen our west coast presence with AS, and New York with B6.

US needs to merge with a airline that has some widebodies.

Hawaiin has 18 767-300s with 6A350 on order and 6A330-200 on order.

 

[767jetz]

767jetz,

The Podcast came from Air Transport World, which is one of the or maybe the most respected commercial air transport avaition periodicals.

No it did not. The first words on the link you provided says, "Welcome to another podcast from Innovation Analysis Group." Try listening to your own material.

 

[InternationalShannon]

This merger flip flop talk is driving me crazy.

:blink:

I bet a grande cinnamon dolce latte it isn't going to happen. Anyone wanna take me up?

 

[YVINTERN]

This merger flip flop talk is driving me crazy.

:blink:

I bet a grande cinnamon dolce latte it isn't going to happen. Anyone wanna take me up?

I'll see your grande cinnamon dolce latte and raise you two original sized Jamba Juice drinks...care to take YVIntern on?

 

[TheLarkAscending]

The IAG team blah, blah, blah.....

Anyone can start a website, post a blog, ask others to contribute and charge a fee to the uninformed. That does not an expert make. "Unknown" does not have a voice for radio, let alone a conference call, er, podcast. He was so distracting with "you know" inserted into his dialog that I began to count them. Thirty six! "John" did a lot of "um" and "ah".

Having been surrounded by bona fide WS financial professionals for most of my life, in comparison, these three did not present thoughts well, sound terribly professional in their analysis nor were they highly polished in speech delivery (except for maybe the Brit). I wouldn't spend a dime on their opinions, nor would I trust them as experts.... um, ah, you know?

 

[PhillyFlyGuy]

Well looks like our CEO's egos are going to kill this deal and they say labor/unions are ruffled. :blink:

You go boys

Link

 

[InternationalShannon]

Well looks like our CEO's egos are going to kill this deal and they say labor/unions are ruffled. :blink:

You go boys

Link

Honestly, is anyone actually surprised about this? Just get out the measuring stick already and get on with it. Even if they do figure out who's gonna own our arses, they're gonna have a hard time getting this cluster approved by the DOJ. I am going to wear my TEAM US AIRWAYS shirt and see if I get sent home. Anyone want one?

 

[nycbusdriver]

Well looks like our CEO's egos are going to kill this deal and they say labor/unions are ruffled. :blink:

You go boys

Link

I love it. Two over-inflated egos slugging it out to see who will preside over the absolute greatest aviation boondoggle to date, and lead two once-proud carriers to their ignominious common grave.

And, in the process, screw the already-screwed long-suffering employees and hapless customers all the while lining their pockets with sleazy ill-gotten booty.

Who could ask for a better gig. No wonder they're fighting over it.

Maybe we can call it: "American Idolator." What's the 866 number to vote for Tilton? (Remember, these are 866, not 800, numbers.)

Or maybe we can start a 666 area code for this very special contest of shameless, self-aggrandizing wills. $19.95 for each vote, money goes into the opposition's pocket.

 

[InternationalShannon]

I love it. Two over-inflated egos slugging it out to see who will preside over the absolute greatest aviation boondoggle to date, and lead two once-proud carriers to their ignominious common grave.

And, in the process, screw the already-screwed long-suffering employees and hapless customers all the while lining their pockets with sleazy ill-gotten booty.

Who could ask for a better gig. No wonder they're fighting over it.

Maybe we can call it: "American Idolator." What's the 866 number to vote for Tilton? (Remember, these are 866, not 800, numbers.)

Or maybe we can start a 666 area code for this very special contest of shameless, self-aggrandizing wills. $19.95 for each vote, money goes into the opposition's pocket.

Ha haha hahahaha, well, since you put it that way I'm not so sure who the passengers are going to want to root for.

Sir, would you like bleach or nail polish remover in your eye?

Hurry, call now while the lines are open!!