US Pilots Labor Discussion

[Keroseneuser]

This whole "stand alone" and "keep our attrition" thing never made any sense, and was ignored when I brought it up. If the west brings 1/3 of the seats, and we bring 2/3 of the seats, and the arbitrated award gives us 2/3 of the upgrades, then it seems to me that we DO keep our attrition. Anything else just wreaks of "we want it all until we are good and ready to let you have yours." We all know the ups and downs we've had in our history and the sacrifices we made along the way. But the idea that our west counterparts must pay for our misfortune with their good fortune never sat right with me.

Lets not forget that many of our retirements will come from the right seat and create little movement and no financial benefit for anyone. Separate ops also does not account for the fact that we are no longer separate airlines. Assets are now moved where they make the most sense. Part of the benefit was that our previously unprofitable flying was made profitable by the macro economics of the merger, such as additional feed from the west among other things. Costs have been diluted making some west flying less profitable and some east flying more profitable. Have you all forgotten that we were not solvent at the time?

This will go on in court until our union runs out of gamesmanship or money. IMO there is enough dissension in the ranks to pass a contract and move on, when one is finally presented for a vote. The only other option I see is ANOTHER new union, barring all previous ALPA and USAPA officers from office, presenting a DFR free, Nic inclusive contract. That COULD happen after Kasher's decision is released.

I agree with you, if it were still 2005. Present day, barring a paypackage from tempe that exceeds anything they have ever envisioned by a long shot, we have 800 automatic "No" votes on the east side. No matter how you look at it, or quote "Date of merger" etc. those 800 don't care about anything except how it will affect them. If the pay package is enough, they will vote it in. Problem is the pay has to be so high as to make them not care about being placed below every west pilot in line for upgrade.

To me that means somewhere in the 120 an hour minimum for f/o's Don't think tempe has any intention of anything like that. I think it would be a toss up if anything could be passed. No way to be sure until it happens I guess.

If kasher is even a partial win on the east side, I don't see any possibility of a NIC T/A passing until enough east guys retire to give the west the majority.

 

[cleardirect]

Anything is possible. However I don't think you could get a nic to pass today with any offer we have seen from the company to date. And as you pointed out the absolute earliest we can expect such a vote to occur is some point past the 12 to 18 months you pointed out. then with company feet dragging, since joint ops and a new contract is not in their best interest....what? maybe 2 to 3 years from now. By three years from now 350 east pilots are gone not counting early outs and medicals, with about 200 to 300 retiring every year until 2020. With movement like that happening and the hit that NIC would put on a bunch of guys in their late 50's and early 60's..a lot of them would in effect be voting "Yes" if I want to finish as an F/O. Or "NO" if I want to finish as a Captain.

Considering that. I think the only way to ensure a "yes" vote from those guys would have to include F/O pay rates at least equal to what the current captain rates on the east are. I think there is a better shot at seeing Doug strip naked in a road show and start doing beer bongs while listening to rap music than seeing him agree to 120 or 125 an hour for f/o's! 😱

Better question.

Do I want to finish my career with more or less money?

Unless this whole thing is about ego and the fourth stripe. In that case you be captain and I will take the money you make $85 and I will make $180 per hour. But you at least can call yourself captain.

 

[CallawayGolf]

Anything is possible. However I don't think you could get a nic to pass today with any offer we have seen from the company to date. And as you pointed out the absolute earliest we can expect such a vote to occur is some point past the 12 to 18 months you pointed out. then with company feet dragging, since joint ops and a new contract is not in their best interest....what? maybe 2 to 3 years from now. By three years from now 350 east pilots are gone not counting early outs and medicals, with about 200 to 300 retiring every year until 2020. With movement like that happening and the hit that NIC would put on a bunch of guys in their late 50's and early 60's..a lot of them would in effect be voting "Yes" if I want to finish as an F/O. Or "NO" if I want to finish as a Captain.

Considering that. I think the only way to ensure a "yes" vote from those guys would have to include F/O pay rates at least equal to what the current captain rates on the east are. I think there is a better shot at seeing Doug strip naked in a road show and start doing beer bongs while listening to rap music than seeing him agree to 120 or 125 an hour for f/o's! 😱

It's highly speculative that a contract wouldn't pass today if a Kirby/NIC TA was put out to a vote. There is simply no unbiased, empirical evidence to back up such an assertion. However, even if you are right that it wouldn't pass it is mostly likely that the east pilots are hoping against some very long odds that Kasher will make all of their hopes and dreams come true. If Kasher delivers a win for Management and then Silver constrains USAPA and Management from using a non-Nic list, then you have a very different situation to assess. There is no way of knowing which of us is right until a TA is presented and the votes are counted. That being said, I maintain that if USAPA/Cleary didn't fear what that vote might looks like, they would have handled things differently in the past few years.

Why are you still accusing Management of dragging their feet on this? Management offered the Kirby proposal, Management filed the DJ to resolved the legal complications that were derived from USAPA failing to present the contractually required list, Management proved in a NC district court that USAPA was the one guilty of violating the status quo rather than trying to negotiate for a valid JCBA. Contract talks are now under the direct supervision of a federally-appointed mediator and I haven't heard or seen a single piece of information that would show the mediator has leveled any blame on management for the slow pace of negotiations.

The only thing that you can rightfully accuse Management of is not throwing an obscene amount of money at the east pilots to get them to drop their DOH wet dream. The reason why they haven;t done this is because there isn't enough money in the Company to make that work, not that I think they should have anyway. Management wants a JCBA, but they aren't going to lead the company into bankruptcy again just to placate the east pilots over their hopeless seniority list dreams.

 

[Keroseneuser]

Better question.

Do I want to finish my career with more or less money?

Unless this whole thing is about ego and the fourth stripe. In that case you be captain and I will take the money you make $85 and I will make $180 per hour. But you at least can call yourself captain.

Really it will probably come down to the pay rates. They have to be high enough to make the 800 of the 1400 current F/O's not mind waiting until all west guys have upgraded before they do. There is zero upside for them and zero incentive for them to vote in a NIC otherwise.

 

[john john]

Ah, so you have no idea what you're talking about.

Copy.

http://www.cactuspilot.com/
again pick one

 

[Move2CLT]

Funny how USAPA vigorously opposed class certification and now they find it advantageous.

Theur has become quite proficient at talking out of his ass.

Maybe he should start asking his mom to try to get him another job

 

[Keroseneuser]

Why are you still accusing Management of dragging their feet on this? Management offered the Kirby proposal, Management filed the DJ to resolved the legal complications that were derived from USAPA failing to present the contractually required list, Management proved in a NC district court that USAPA was the one guilty of violating the status quo rather than trying to negotiate for a valid JCBA. Contract talks are now under the direct supervision of a federally-appointed mediator and I haven't heard or seen a single piece of information that would show the mediator has leveled any blame on management for the slow pace of negotiations.

Anything other than what we have now costs the company more money. A combined NIC list in addition to any raise also costs the company more money in training. Seperate lists the company has to deal with a massive training float on the east over the next 10 years with a fairly stable west list of 50 a year or so. A NIC list means a complete replacement of all the f/o's on the west side in that time, as well as huge movement on the east with all the associated base displacements west to east and east to west as it all sorts it's self out.

There is no way the beancounters in Tempe have overlooked these numbers. Not when they are changing ACARS times to reduce flight times by 2 minutes here and 2 minutes there.

Maybe I am wrong, but I don't think so.

 

[CallawayGolf]

Anything other than what we have now costs the company more money. A combined NIC list in addition to any raise also costs the company more money in training. Seperate lists the company has to deal with a massive training float on the east over the next 10 years with a fairly stable west list of 50 a year or so. A NIC list means a complete replacement of all the f/o's on the west side in that time, as well as huge movement on the east with all the associated base displacements west to east and east to west as it all sorts it's self out.

There is no way the beancounters in Tempe have overlooked these numbers. Not when they are changing ACARS times to reduce flight times by 2 minutes here and 2 minutes there.

Maybe I am wrong, but I don't think so.

Are you seriously suggesting that the NIC will result in all west F/Os immediately upgrading and that most or all of the east will be displaced by those west upgrades? Please explain how you have made this determination.

 

[Move2CLT]

http://www.cactuspilot.com/
again pick one

Again you're taking out of your ass.

 

[john john]

Again you're taking out of your ass.

Thanks for your continued support. Remember, justice isn’t free.

Sincerely,

Leonidas, LLC

 

[Move2CLT]

Thanks for your continued support. Remember, justice isn’t free.

Sincerely,

Leonidas, LLC

Due to the overwhelming success of Leonidas' legal campaign against our attempt to impose DOH on the west, we have approved deficient spending.

We have also formed an exploratory committee to determine how much of an assessment is needed to cover our costs going forward.

Remember, trying to screw the west isn't free.

Sincerely,

Mike Cleary and his merry men.

 

[Keroseneuser]

Are you seriously suggesting that the NIC will result in all west F/Os immediately upgrading and that most or all of the east will be displaced by those west upgrades? Please explain how you have made this determination.

Best we can figure from past number crunching on here even with the over 65 f'o's we are looking at 1000 of the 1208 active captains gone in 9 years. With the other 780 east retirements of the 1780+ in 9 years being either f/o or ones out on medical or other leaves. the number of total retires is probably going to be higher since we are already losing a small but steady stream a full 12 months before the 65 date kicks in.

Under NIc we add another 400 capts gone from the west in 9 years. In effect that is most of the current Captains at the airline.

Most of the 1780 retires from the east are NOT in the 800 that would be put on the bottom of the NIC pile. So that leaves somewhere in neighborhood of 720 (currently active and non active)east pilots that are slotted in according to NIC, with many of those remaining junior to a lot of the west guys.

700 west f/o's roughly + 720 left over none bottom of list east f/o's in 9 years= 1420 f/o's to fill 1400 vacant captain seats on east and west combined. In effect a full turnover of west f/o's by end of decade. no matter how you slice it, that is a massive amount of movement that will cause massive reshuffle from the top of the list to the bottom.

Base numbers, 1400 west guys, 3300 east guys with 2646 active. Not exact numbers of course, but to facilitate that kind of movement from west f/o to east captain there is a lot of cross country movement. Not all will take upgrade and commute, but no way to predict the numbers.

 

[crazystnic]

and a point that is being missed with the NIC>

just because a guy gets to upgrade does not make it "fair"...

He upgrades to Captain with 10 years left but sits junior to a west new hire and sits RSV for a good portion of the time.

No thanks

 

[luvn737s]

IMO there is enough dissension in the ranks to pass a contract and move on, when one is finally presented for a vote. The only other option I see is ANOTHER new union, barring all previous ALPA and USAPA officers from office, presenting a DFR free, Nic inclusive contract. That COULD happen after Kasher's decision is released.

If Kasher prevails for the east pilots those rates would be higher than anything USAPA could negotiate (isn't that a nice tip of the hat to ALPA), and would likely be conceded in the next contract because they are unsustainable. The company could allow the pay rates but extract the difference in value in other areas such as benefits and work rules. But USAPA could not block a vote on a new contract just because they "got theirs", just as they cannot delay a contract in order to see how Kasher turns out for them.

Barring someone from leadership isn't necessary, their record does that for them. But I think that the pilots of US should allow USAPA to die out as their failed decisions have sealed their extinction. But to allow a power vacuum to exist invites only more trouble. I agree that a new union comprised of pilots from both sides can form an alliance that moves everyone forward and puts this acrimony behind us so that over time trust can be rebuilt and a pilot union can begin to look and act more like a union that serves its members instead of suing them.

 

[nevergiveup]

If Kasher prevails for the east pilots those rates would be higher than anything USAPA could negotiate (isn't that a nice tip of the hat to ALPA), and would likely be conceded in the next contract because they are unsustainable. The company could allow the pay rates but extract the difference in value in other areas such as benefits and work rules. But USAPA could not block a vote on a new contract just because they "got theirs", just as they cannot delay a contract in order to see how Kasher turns out for them.

Barring someone from leadership isn't necessary, their record does that for them. But I think that the pilots of US should allow USAPA to die out as their failed decisions have sealed their extinction. But to allow a power vacuum to exist invites only more trouble. I agree that a new union comprised of pilots from both sides can form an alliance that moves everyone forward and puts this acrimony behind us so that over time trust can be rebuilt and a pilot union can begin to look and act more like a union that serves its members instead of suing them.

Does anyone really think that we will have a contract prior to another merger?