Well here is where we are.
The east is on loa 93, the west is stuck stagnent with a joint contract of some kind the only way out for both sides.
Barring any steller payscales offered from the company:
1/3 of the east active list (voters) is a near 100% no vote on a NIC list due to the 1750 retirements in the next nine and the 2700 in the next 14. Any NIC list puts them below 1600 west guys that only bring an extra 400 retirements in the next 9 and 785 in the next 15.
The middle 1/3 of the east active list will be inclined to vote no the farther down the blended list it gets.
The upper 1/3 of the east active list is the wests best shot of help in getting a NIC voted in.
The west f/o's are a near 100% yes vote for a NIC.
The west Captains will be a mixed bag, the bigger the hit they take in a combined list the more money it will take to get a yes vote and add a bunch of east guys above them, but they also have the east attrition added, so probably the lower half of the west capt.s would vote yes.
Now if it looks like PHX will be reduced in size a good bit and force them east, that will reduce the yes votes.
So really, in the end it is going to come down to what Tempe wants. If they pay enough they can get a NIC voted in easily. If they lowball on pay and work rules they probably cannot get a NIC voted in.
The options?:
NIC, NIC with base and seat protections, NIC with Base, seat and attrition protections, DOH, DOH with the afore mentioned protections, or some new list that includes all active pilots and protections. Or some AA or other merger scenario.
Thats kinda the way I see the situation right now. For me, if Kirby or someoter equally crappy offer is all the company is going to cough up, I will wait for the retirements on LOA 93. If Tempe comes up with something that resembles industry standard I will look very hard at it. For me NIC is the difference between widebody and narrowbody. But each person will have to look at their own situation.