The windfall from the Nic comes from west pilots gaining more in seniority than they would have on a west standalone list. The west guy I mentioned earlier will hit,at retirement, the top 5% or so on the Nic(at a bigger airline, with more bidding opportunities), while on an AWA standalone list he would only make it to about 13%. Where does that gain come from you ask? The east, as many guys won't hit what the would on an east standalone list. He doesn't even have to wait until retirement. If the Nic were to be implemented tomorrow he could hold any number of higher paying positions on the east that he couldn't hold on the west. Windfall: an unexpected, unearned, or sudden gain or advantage.
To state otherwise just further erodes your integrity. The thing is, you don't have to justify it or explain away the windfalls. The ALPA merger policy didn't say There Shall Be No Windfalls. It just said a goal was that they be avoided.
You're making predictions about what could happen many years into the future (i.e. what will happen to a west or east pilot at his anticipated retirement age). Plus you are comparing a stand alone list to the NIC and any possibility of a stand alone system went out the window in 2005. West pilot #1800 gained nothing in terms of seniority when the award was issued just like east pilot #3200 lost nothing when the award was issued. That is the measuring stick of a windfall, not something that might happen 10, 20, or 30 years into an unforeseen future.
But let's evaluate your scenario based on your own definition of a windfall:
Unexpected: the merger was announced and the expectations by APLA and Management were establish in how the labor groups generally and the pilot group specifically would be integrated. So well before 9/27/2005 it should have been clear that a ratio-based integration was not only possible (not unexpected) but very likely to happen. This should have been even more clear as a possibility when George Nicolau was selected as the Arbitrator given his previous methodology. So the unexpected portion of your definition doesn't seem to fit very well. Not only that, but anyone with a rational mind could see that younger guys on either list would have the greatest opportunity for advancement given the sizable bubble of age 50+ pilots in the combined airline. What is the phrase we have heard here over and over again? "In ten years you (west) guys will own the airline." Unexpected, I beg to differ.
Unearned: How does one earn a position on a seniority list? When you come into a pre-established population you start out low and advance over time based on people above you on the list departing from the ranks. Perhaps more importantly, seniority is gained when people join the list after you thus pushing you higher up the list based on a relative position in comparison to others. At at relatively young or expanding company this seniority is "earned" rather quickly; a person may perhaps see substantial improvements in their position if many people are being hired in a short period of time (a few months or a few years perhaps). At a stagnant or declining company the reverse would be true and long periods of time might pass with little to no advancement (earning) in a relative seniority position (sound familiar?). In this situation a junior person might stay in the same basic percentile for a decade or more "earning" virtually nothing on the seniority scale.
So what does a person actually do to "earn" seniority other than staying active on the same list and waiting for circumstances at their company to improve via attrition, growth, mergers & acquisitions and the like. He can't go out an hire a bunch of people to be junior to him if the company isn't hiring, so seniority can't be "earned" that way. And unless he plans to take out those senior to him in some kind of Tanya Harding kind of way, he can't "earn" seniority by getting those senior to him to get out of the way either.
Both east and west pilots were doing the only thing they could to "earn" their seniority at their respective airlines. That is, they stayed on their lists and held whatever position they could so much as it may have depended on them (which wasn't much besides not going on medical LOA or quitting). Thus all east and west pilots earned their spot on their lists and when those lists were integrated, they retained the same relative status they had already earned prior to the arbitration award.
sudden gain or advantage: How is anything about the NIC seniority list sudden? By your own analysis you are talking about what will happen at the end of a person's career based on a whole host of assumptions. The junior HP pilot didn't suddenly become eligible to hold a WB captain position did he? Does that junior west pilot still need to wait for circumstances that are beyond his control to open up opportunities for him or did NIC give any junior pilot a sudden or immediate advantage to displace someone more senior to him on the next bid or the next five bids, or the next 50 bids? How is waiting for an opportunity to open up for advancement that may or may not ever come based on factors beyond a person's control a sudden gain or advantage?
To say the least, I remain fully unconvinced even using your own definitions and examples. As NIC4 said, this whole windfall myth is nothing more than a phantom or ghost invented by the east to justify their refusal to accept final and binding arbitration.