Unfortunately, the election results went eactly as some of us predicted. Why? There is no trust between either pilot group. I know the west pilots will say they have done nothing to lose the east pilot's trust, but both pilot groups still think as if they're independent groups per-merger.
I believe a merger will change USAPA dynamics, but here is what I believe will happen within USAPA if US Airways does not merge with AA.
1. Hummel will seek new Committee members for the NAC, Merger, Communications, and Grievance Committees. People like DiOrio, Colello, Pauley, Fillar, Glynn, Parella, and Brennan could be fired and returned to the line; along with Cleary and Mowrey.
2. Hummel will seek to re-start contract talks with US Airways and will cooperate with management versus oppose every management objective.
3. Hummel will seek BPR approval for a scientific poll maybe done by somebody like Phil Comstock. The poll should be conducted by members and non-members and could include a question like "would you approve an industry standard contract that contains the Nicolau Award?" In two separate Compass Correction updates Hummel's handlers indicated they would change their DOH provision if the pilot group gave the BPR new direction. This would require a C&BLs SLI change.
4. Hummel will wait for Judge Silver's decision. If Silver rules in AOL's favor and the pilot group through a survey is willing to move beyond the Nicolau Award then I believe the BPR will not pass a resolution to appeal the DJ decision.
5. If consensus is not met with the four points above then the 3rd List, PHX-based pilots, and East anti-USAPA pilots will be able to reform USAPA in 3 years. However, will there be card drive for a representation election before the officer 3-year term expires?
However, I believe none of what I wrote above will happen. Instead next week the news media is reporting AMR will file Section 1113 motions against each of AA's four unions and AMR Eagle's employees. In many respects the AA employee Term Sheets have deeper cuts than LOA 93. To buy labor merger support I believe Parker may offer US Airways and AA's pilots the Delta contract in exchange for the CoC clause, the acceptance of Jude Silver's decision as our SLI, and a McCaskill-Bond SLI for the upcoming AA-US merger.
Today Tom Hoban, a spokesman for the Allied Pilots Association, told Bloomberg News that if the union couldn’t reach a consensual labor agreement with AMR as the carrier seeks to rework contracts, the group might be willing to work with new management brought in as the result of a merger.